Alex Leff's Notebook:

Costa Rica's wacky campaign commercials

SAN JOSE, Costa Rica — Young pregnant women sing a Spanish-language spoof of the Little Peggy March classic “I Will Follow Him.”

A man with a baby bib plays piano while another man, naked except for his diaper, dances to the lively tunes.

It’s not just a skit for YouTube. This is the latest campaign commercial by the Costa Rican presidential candidate Luis Fishman.

With less than three weeks before the Feb. 7 elections, Fishman has uncorked a case of campaign gags, which seem nothing short of nothing-to-lose banter from a fourth-place contender.

But beyond the diapers and dancing mothers-to-be, is a message. His latest campaign slogan: the lesser evil.

This, from a man who took over the reins of a campaign with the Social Christian Unity Party, after its previous candidate, former President Rafael Angel Calderon, was found guilty of corruption in October.

Despite the lackluster handover, Fishman still could muster 5.9 percent of the vote, according to this weekend’s Unimer poll, published in the daily La Nacion.

“We’ve carried out a campaign that’s upbeat, positive, (and) distinctive,” Fishman said during a live online chat Tuesday hosted La Nacion’s website. “The pregnant women represent the beginning, what’s to come, a family,” he said.

The ad campaign comes in stark contrast to the crime-fighting straight suit wearing guy depicted on billboards across the country with the slogan "Fishman: Gives me security" — a stab at a key issue for voters this year.

The new honesty campaign is way out there, seeming to go beyond even the absurdity that can sometimes be construed as Costa Rican humor.

"My baby's coming soon. The lesser evil is the better one, that's why I'm going to pick him," women sing in Costa Rican gospel harmony. "Realistic, sincere, no stories, I believe him, which is why I'll vote for him."
 

Votes at home don't translate to legitimacy abroad

The Costa Rican president's living room once again became a comfort zone for troubled Hondurans Tuesday.

This time, Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo sought the counsel of President Oscar Arias after winning one of the region's most controversial presidential elections in recent history. Judging by the results of the Nov. 29 poll, Lobo won over most Hondurans and his opposition National Party will enjoy a majority in Congress.

But winning votes, or even legitimacy, abroad has been another matter.

Nations including Brazil and its neighbors in the Mercosur bloc have refused to recognize the elections. They believe Honduras' vote could not have been carried out fairly because it took place under a coup government that refused to reinstate the last elected president, Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted on June 28. But Arias said, Hondurans — among the hemisphere's poorest — have been punished enough during their political crisis, particularly when nations froze much needed aid to the country in protest of the coup and the aftermath.

Arias was the first leader to cry coup after Zelaya's overthrow and served as chief mediator in the weeks following the day the exiled Honduran landed on Costa Rica's doorstep.

But last month, Arias became one of the first and few Latin American leaders to support Lobo's election.

Arias said Honduras must push the accord he helped create during those rocky San Jose talks, saying that he talked to Lobo about the need to follow through with the agreement.

"We spoke about the most important points that are outlined in the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord and we consider that the de facto President Roberto Micheletti should leave his post, because that's what the international community is expecting, desiring and demanding," Arias told reporters huddled in his living room, much like the media had five months ago when Arias announced he'd start a mediation.

Another pro-Lobo politician showed up for the meeting. In a surprise visit, Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli joined Arias and Lobo at the Costa Rican leader's San Jose abode. In September, Martinelli, one of the region's only conservative presidents, became probably the first head of state to publicly say his government would recognize the winner of last month's election in Honduras, as long as it was a clean one. This went against the line pushed by the Organization of the American States, which upholds the condition that Zelaya should have been returned to power first.

Critics have said elections organized by a coup government are illegitimate. However, Martinelli said other Latin American democracies have emerged from worse predicaments. He recalled Panama's emergence from war and dictatorship, and its 1989 elections, which he said Costa Rica was the first nation to support.

Lobo seems to understand the international pressure he's up against, but he told reporters Tuesday he will continue "knocking on doors."

He pledged as president to issue a political amnesty for all parties involved in the events that led up to and followed Zelaya's ouster — one of the key points of the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord.

However, after the Honduran Supreme Court and Congress' flat nay, the central point of that accord, Zelaya's reinstatement, is farther than ever from bearing fruit.

Where ever will the eternal guest of the Brazilian Embassy go?

Costa Rica's Arias supports Honduran elections

Oscar Arias was the first head of state to call Manuel Zelaya's ouster a coup. Arias then volunteered to mediate between the exiled president and the de facto government, insisting that Honduras' road to reconciliation must be paved with Zelaya's restoration.

But now, following the United States' lead, it appears Arias sees another way forward.

Today he said Costa Rica will recognize the winner of Sunday's presidential elections in Honduras as long as they are fair. He called on other leaders, who are convening this week in Portugal for the Ibero-American Summit, to soften their hard line against the controversial vote.

“If this Sunday’s elections are transparent … I’m going to request the Ibero-American countries in this meeting in Portugal that we recognize the future Honduran government,” Arias said in a statement.

The international community — with few exceptions — had hinged its support for the vote on the condition that Honduras must allow the deposed leader to return to power, which seems increasingly unlikely. The Honduran Supreme Court recommended that lawmakers rule out his reinstatement in a congressional vote conspicuously slated for Dec. 2, after the elections.

But after Washington changed key and began to push for the elections, with or without Zelaya in office, some countries slowly followed suit. So far, Panama, Peru and now Costa Rica have publicly backed the elections. Other countries like Argentina, Brazil, Guatemala and Venezuela have said Sunday's vote will produce an illegitimate winner.

Zelaya, still holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, has accused the Obama administration of forsaking him and dividing the Americas.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said, "We see the running of these elections — assuming that they're run in a fair and transparent way — we see them as an essential part of the solution of this crisis."

Arias, one of Washington's best friends in the region, went further in pressing other countries to follow the Obama administration's line.

"I'd like to ask the countries of Latin America that have said they do not want to recognize the future government (of Honduras), why do you recognize the government of Iran when the elections (there) were not clean? Why do you recognize the government of Afghanistan, when the elections were not clean?" he said during a visit in the Middle East.

“By wishing to punish the person that the Honduran people choose in the next elections, who you’re really punishing are the humble Hondurans.”

How much will US unemployment hurt in Central America?

Around the world, the early bells of a so-called end of the recession have been intoxicating. Mexico and Brazil are among the recent nations to proclaim themselves to have emerged from the depths of crisis.

But the United Nations served a sobering chill to this region Thursday, when its Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reported that it projects 9 million people will fall into poverty by the end of this year, bumping the number of the region's poor up to 189 million.

Sound like a lot of folks?

Of course it does. It's about 34 percent of the population. And that's only a 1.1 percent increase over 2008's total of poor people. The population living in extreme poverty is expected to grow to a total 76 million (13.7 percent of the population), up from last year's 71 million — a 0.8 percent increase.

This is a blow to the region's efforts to revive economies, which for the past six years drove the number down from even more frighteningly high levels.

And as far as Central America's concerned, an ominous question mark looms, a U.N. Latin America expert recently told me. With the U.S. unemployment rate hitting 10.2 percent in October, over a 25-year record, "the first thing that comes to mind is what will happen to remittances?" said Martin Hopenhayn, head of ECLAC's social development division.

During a conversation at a social innovation event earlier this month in Guatemala City, Hopenhayn said families in countries like El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras depend enormously on money coming in from emigrant workers, primarily in the U.S. This cash makes up as much as 18 percent of the gross domestic product of some Central American economies, he said.

One of the projects awarded at the event in Guatemala has grown in part thanks to migrants' remittances. Women in Oaxaca, Mexico, reinvest the money into a business making "comfort food" out of nopal cactus and have revitalized their community.

It's hard to think what scarcer cash inflows could do to such initiatives.

I'm looking at the World Bank's Web site for more insight on remittances and I find this: A November projection for remittances in 2009.

Overall, the World Bank says the indicators are better than expected. But wait. Looking more closely, inflows particularly to Latin America and the Caribbean will have a larger-than-expected decline this year, the report says.

Opening up a long Excel spreadsheet, my eye goes straight to El Salvador, probably because of recent tragedy that struck that poor Central American nation: flooding and landslides caused by rains from Hurricane Ida killed as many as 200 people and displaced 15,000, devastation comparable to 1998's Hurricane Mitch.

Salvadoran migrant remittances could fall nearly 10 percent to $3.46 billion in 2009 compared with last year's total. If the World Bank's projections are right, that percentage drop will be the average decline in money inflows across Latin America and the Caribbean. Analysts expect the global average to decline by 6.1 percent.

For many of the families in this region just barely eking out a living, a cutoff from expected funds could spell out disaster, and full fledged poverty.

As some governments and corporate leaders are preparing to pop their champagne corks, somewhere in the shadows of this alleged recovery, the world's poor are at risk of getting lost between the green shoots.

Honduran accord falls apart

After speaking too soon, perhaps, the U.S. State Department appeared at a loss for words today as the much touted Honduran accord — which high ranking U.S. officials helped broker — broke apart once again.

After a team of senior State Department and White House officials dived into the fray last week in Tegucigalpa, a truce was signed by both leaders who until then had been intransigent about their claim to the presidency of Honduras. This came four months after the ouster of Manuel Zelaya, who after sneaking back from exile remains holed up in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa.

After the signing of the pact — now being called the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord — it's implementation was hanging in limbo pending approval from the Honduran Congress, which itself awaited a thumbs up from the Supreme Court before it would proceed.

But it all seemed to be going so well.

One of the first points of the pact, to create a Verification Commission, already bore fruit. The commission comprises esteemed leadership under former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos and U.S. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis. Optimism that seemed impossible not long ago began to fill the air. So what happened?

Zelaya accused interim President Roberto Micheletti, essentially, of moving to form a unity government without unifying with Zelaya or including members from the ousted leader's camp. Zelaya called off the accord. "The negotiations have come to an end," Zelaya said told The Associated Press. "We have declared that there is no possibility of recognizing that accord."

However, the Micheletti administration has just issued a statement refuting that claim. It reads: "Mr. Manuel Zelaya refused to provide the list of candidates who could form part of the unity government. Surprisingly, today, Mr. Zelaya attributes this lack of participation in the Government of Unity and Reconciliation as an excuse to declare the failure of the accord and abandon his commitment when it was he who refused to cooperate with creating this new government."

Ho-hum, tit-for-tat...

After its short-lived diplomatic victory, there was only one thing the U.S. could express: disappointment.

During Friday's briefing, U.S. State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly said, "I think we’re disappointed with both sides. I think we’re disappointed that both sides are not following this very clear path which has been laid out in this accord."

But reporters pushed Kelly further on a related point. Yesterday U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina) released a statement announcing the Obama administration has assured him it will recognize Honduras' Nov. 29 elections, eschewing an earlier condition that an agreement involving Zelaya's reinstatement was crucial first before the vote could be fair and ultimately legitimate.

“I am happy to report the Obama Administration has finally reversed its misguided Honduran policy and will fully recognize the November 29th elections,” said DeMint. “Secretary Clinton and Assistant Secretary Shannon have assured me that the U.S. will recognize the outcome of the Honduran elections regardless of whether Manuel Zelaya is reinstated.”

Kelly refused to confirm this during today's briefing, in spite of prodding by journalists. Instead he stuck to the line that the U.S. believes the accord is the way forward and, when its goals are met, Washington will recognize the newly elected president.

What now? The U.S. Ambassador to Honduras Hugo Llorens is urging the rival leaders to return to the negotiating table. But after talking that began here in Costa Rica in the weeks following the June 28 coup, and more talking that resumed after Zelaya popped up in Tegucigalpa, what's really left to negotiate? Hopefully Micheletti and Zelaya will find something, and follow through with it, realizing that their nation's future — more important than their own — still hangs in the balance.

The countdown to Nov. 29 continues.

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