John Otis's Notebook:

FARC rebels make off with ... dimes

BOGOTA, Colombia — Things haven’t been going so well for Colombia’s largest guerrilla group.

An army offensive and a wave of desertions have reduced the size of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, from 17,000 fighters to about 10,000. The FARC still pulls off deadly raids but more often than not, things go awry.

The latest fiasco was a pre-dawn attack Tuesday in the southern town of Caloto. The FARC’s main target was the government-run Agrarian Bank.

Around 1 a.m., the guerrillas detonated explosives around the bank. But once inside, they were unable to penetrate the safe that held about $200,000.

“They were too nervous and didn’t have enough time,” Police Col. Carlos Rodriguez told Bogota’s Caracol TV.

The rebels managed to open an auxiliary safe. But instead of stacks of cash, the lock box held 200- and 500-peso coins — the equivalent of dimes and quarters.

So, instead of making off with 200 Gs, which the rebels could have used to buy more guns and grenades, the rebels carried away heavy bags of coins containing 1 million pesos — worth only about $500.

A third term for Uribe?

BOGOTA, Colombia — Is Colombian President Alvaro Uribe steamrolling toward a third term? Or running out of time?

Just before midnight Tuesday, the Colombian House of Representatives by an 85-5 margin approved a bill to hold a referendum that could pave the way for Uribe to stand in next year’s election.

The lopsided vote was due to a boycott by opposition legislators who claim that the process has been rife with irregularities ranging from vote-buying to illegal financing of the referendum drive.

Despite the rousing victory, a third four-year term for Uribe is hardly a lay-up. The law to hold the referendum must be OK’d by the Constitutional Court, a process that will likely take at least five months due to numerous legal challenges, according to Rafael Pardo, a presidential candidate for the opposition Liberal Party.

Pro-Uribe magistrates dominate the court and some analysts believe a decision will come by December. But even if they give their seal of approval, the National Registry will probably need another three months to organize the nationwide referendum.

After that, at least one-quarter of the electorate — about 7 million people — would then have to turn out to cast ballots. But it's difficult to get citizens to vote in referendums.

If enough ballots are cast, the “yes” votes would have to outnumber the “no” votes for the referendum to pass.

All of this is cutting it very close since the first round of the presidential election is scheduled for late May.

It could still happen. Uribe enjoys widespread popularity due to his national security policies that have driven back Marxist guerrillas and reduced homicides and kidnappings. Polls show him easily defeating any other candidate.

But Uribe’s strategy is also full of risks and could hurt his impressive legacy. Even admirers are starting to view the president as power-hungry with some calling him a right-wing version of Hugo Chavez.

Meanwhile, his shadow candidacy has kept other pro-Uribe presidential hopefuls — like former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos — on the sidelines. Thus, if the re-election drive is derailed, opposition candidates who have been campaigning all along will enjoy a big head start on the Uribistas.

Accusations of bribery in legal battle between Chevron and Ecuadorian activists

BOGOTA, Colombia — There’s been a mysterious twist in the legal battle pitting Chevron Corp. against Ecuadorian activists who want the U.S. energy company to pay for a cleanup of massive environmental damage in the Amazon jungle.

Billions are at stake in the lawsuit, which is being argued before a judge in a ramshackle court room in the Ecuadorian oil boom town of Lago Agrio, located just across the border from Colombia.

If Chevron loses, the San Ramon, Calif.,-based firm could be ordered to pay up to $27 billion in reparations — potentially the largest civil damages award ever imposed.

Now, just as the 15-year-old case enters its final stages, Chevron has released secretly recorded videotapes that, according to the company, implicate the judge and a senior official from the ruling government party in a $3 million bribery scheme.

In a statement, Chevron said:

 "In the videos, the judge confirms that he will rule against Chevron and that appeals by the energy company will be denied — even though the trial is ongoing and evidence is still being received. A purported party official also states that lawyers from the executive branch have been sent to assist the judge in writing the decision.

"The recorded meetings also show an individual who claims to be a representative of Ecuador's ruling political party, Alianza PAIS, seeking $3 million in bribes in return for handing out environmental remediation contracts to two businessmen after the verdict is handed down. Of that sum, he said $1 million would go to Judge Juan Nuñez, $1 million would go to "the presidency" and $1 million to the plaintiffs."

Chevron is seeking a disqualification of the judge and an annulment of his prior rulings in the case.

But Steven Donziger, a New York-based attorney representing the plaintiffs, said the release of the videotapes is a stunt that raises more questions about the behavior of Chevron than the judge. He called the release of the tapes a desperate “Richard Nixon-style dirty-tricks campaign” designed to delay a final ruling that Chevron knows it will lose.

"Ninety-nine percent of the evidence is in. The evidence is overwhelmingly unfavorable to Chevron," Donziger said. "If the judge did anything wrong, there are mechanisms to remove him and a new judge will come in. This does not change one bit the fact that Texaco (which was acquired by Chevron in 2001) wrecked the Amazon rain forest and needs to pay for the cleanup."

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