Patrick Winn's Notebook:

Bracing for bloodshed in Bangkok

Since relocating to Thailand 10 months ago, I've lived here under three different prime ministers — all because of ongoing, back-and-forth protest movements. If this raucous crowd gets its way, I'll soon see my fourth.

More than 100,000 protesters — many from Thailand's poor upcountry — have amassed in Bangkok. This is a tremendous show of force for Thailand's "red shirt" opposition movement, which is campaigning to drive out the current ruling party — which is backed by old money and establishment powers.

This is a blog entry, not a master's thesis, so I don't have time to explain the granular nuances and dizzying forces driving this conflict. I love Thailand, and I follow Thai politics religiously, and it actually pains me to reduce this whole drama down to "upcountry protesters" vs. "establishment forces."

Just know that, in the next few days, I believe Bangkok will quite likely see political violence.

I've spent hours at the ongoing rally seen above, which has totally choked the Thai prime minister's compound. And, in the red shirt leaders' tent there, I've been hearing promises of rather dramatic action.

Not only was this off the record, but not very clear either, so I have to be vague.

But I can say this: I think the red shirts have been looking for crowds large enough to overwhelm the military. Is 100,000 enough? Probably. I was told not to show up tonight before having a heart-to-heart with my loved ones ... and finding some goggles to see through the tear gas. Great.

The crowd is in high spirits, but thirsty for a confrontation and they will not leave empty handed. The sense of urgency is overwhelming.

As I type this, taxi drivers, who largely hail from rural Thailand, have blocked one of Bangkok's busiest traffic circles with their cabs. I just received a text message from the red shirts that mobs are pushing towards Thailand's state-owned TV station.

I'm not sure how this ends. But I suspect that, before it's all over, someone will be hurt or killed. I hope I'm wrong.

UPDATE: Thursday night passed without bloodshed. Outside of blocking roads, and making Bangkok's traffic even more insufferable than normal, the red shirts staged no major "shock and awe" offensive last night.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva flew by helicopter to an emergency security meeting with military leaders in Bangkok. He also broadcast a live address/warning on all TV stations, essentially urging protesters who don't have the heart for jail or military intervention to go home so the rest can be dealt with.

Many protesters appear to be going home at night to regroup. At least I know now where my neighborhood stands. Around midnight, I saw droves of red shirts pouring out of the nearest train station to head back home.

We're coming up on the five-day Songkran holiday here in Thailand. Thaksin Shinawatra, red shirt leader and deposed ex-premier, has promised a big showdown for the holidays.

A 30-year-old business owner and red shirt supporter, Nuttawun Puntuwong, told me that protesters are just waiting for cues from their leaders. "It's up to the leaders to instruct us. If they want us to push on, we'll push on. If they want us to go home, we'll go home."

P.S. If all this sounds a little too apocalyptic, keep in mind that these rallies are also major excuses to party. Check out these photos, shot by a well-known blogger here in Bangkok. Does this look like a people's uprising... or spring break?

Altered beasts

I post this with some hesitation, as it will likely embarrass a well-meaning animal rescue project and possibly a few media outlets.

But there's something missing from this picture, taken on behalf of a public relations group employed by last week's elephant polo competition in Thailand. (Click here to read my piece on the quirky sport.)

If you've spotted what's missing already, congrats. You're probably a professional elephant handler. The rest of you should look closely at yellow baton in the blue-sleeved guy's hand.

Now closer...

That's not a baton. It's a small hook. But it's been digitally blacked out or "photoshopped" to look less threatening.

Truthfully, the hook isn't all that threatening. Most elephant handlers guide their beasts by raking an "ankush" — a heavy iron hook — across their hide. This can cause skin breakage and it's forbidden by the World Elephant Polo Association.

These handlers use the "khor," a smaller, lighter hook. And, in this year's matches, handlers used khors wrapped in yellow, rubberized tape to further prevent harm to the elephant.

Why use it at all? Well, ever touched an elephant's hide? You're not going to get their attention with a feather duster. Using the khor, especially one wrapped in tape, can't possibly rank too high on the animal cruelty scale. Especially considering that most livestock basically endure a real-life Saw IV before they hit our plates.

Still, there is a small elephant polo resistance movement out there. I assume the P.R. workers, who directed its photographers-for-hire to alter the photos, want to sidestep protests or picketing. (I've asked and I'm still waiting for a reply.)

Each year, they post a batch of high-res elephant polo photos here, mostly for media outlets to pick through and publish. But, unbeknownst to the outlets, a handful have been "photoshopped" to remove the hooks.

The outlets using these photos include Time Magazine, as well as Forbes Traveler and Luxury Travel Magazine. Even the BBC, back in 2003, ran an elephant polo shot provided by the World Elephant Polo Association's clothing line. A ton of outlets, from state-run tourism agencies to blogs, also use the photos.

All this photoshopping is likely done to prevent the appearance of elephant cruelty. But that's really unnecessary. Almost all of the elephants that play this sport are rescued from a sorry life in Bangkok, where they prowled prostitution districts with handlers to squeeze dollars from drunk tourists. I can't probe the minds of elephants, but I'll bet they prefer living on a northern Thai resort over an urchin's life.

That a panicky P.R. group would alter photos is hardly surprising. They don't think like journalists. They don't promise to stick to any reporter's code.

And, look, I can't even prove that any of the photos circulating out there have been altered. After some laptop scrutiny, my amateur instincts tell me that the big outlets, at least, didn't select the manipulated shots. Out of pure luck.

I could end this with some convenient moralizing. Or maybe some doomsday analysis about the specter of Photoshop in the newsroom. Or if I really wanted to lay it on thick, I could bring up this.

But it just doesn't feel right. Because in previous reporting jobs, when hacking out some piece on deadline, and after hearing some photo editor explain he's too busy to assign a photographer, I've accepted photos from P.R. agencies, random readers, the U.S. military and others.

And I have no idea if some P.R. rep photoshopped more hair on his CEO's head. Or if some public affairs officer digitally deleted a pool of blood.

Comments?

Exile 2.0

Back in the day, when political firebrands fled the Thai kingdom, exile was exile. You stuck it out in your new hideaway — China, France, wherever — and maybe wrote letters to comrades back home. But with no proximity to Thailand, ousted leaders had little sway over the homeland they left behind.

Now, mobile phones and satellite uplinks are changing the meaning of exile. For eight days, deposed ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra has led a massive rally outside current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government compound. 

He's done all this mostly from ... Dubai. And, rumor has it, Africa.

Thaksin's protesters, who signify their loyalty with blood red shirts and headbands, just days ago swelled to 30,000 people. Longing to see their hero returned to power, they're demanding the collapse of the current government. (Which came to power only about three months ago after a different protest faction, clad in yellow, helped force the dissolution of a Thaksin-favored government. You might want to take notes.)

At night, Thaksin has appeared as a disembodied head on large projector screens set up around the PM's compound. He's the host of these rowdy pep rallies, urging them to soldier on and defeat the ruling government.

And as his faithful roar in Bangkok's streets, Thaksin sits in front of a video camera somewhere in the Middle East desert. (He's cagey about exact locations.) Then he, I guess, catches a late dinner? Flips on Sportscenter?

Who knows. But this version of exile —  in which he hops from country to country, guiding this opposition movement back home through video links and cell phone calls — is another fascinating example of technology's sway over politics.

P.S. Before each rally, I typically receive text messages sent en masse to journalists and others from the public relations arm of Thaksin's camp. Such as: "For those of you who will be at the area today pls bring your own wet towel, tear gas maybe to be ordered."

Photo by Pailin Wedel from one of  Thaksin's first major phone-in rally last fall.

No bribe for me? (An open letter to Thailand's ex-premier)

Dear former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra,

This is Patrick Winn, Thailand correspondent with GlobalPost. Ever heard of me? No?

Excuse the public nature of this letter, but you are in exile after all. I can't seem to track down a fixed address for your hideaways in Hong Kong or Dubai.

I'm writing because, well, I'm hurt. Some Thai newspapers are reporting that you've been bribing the foreign media to write stories sympathetic to your plight. They're warning Thai people that you've got all of the foreign media in your pocket.

Now, I admit that I haven't been around too long. I wasn't here in the 1990s, when your various business ventures made you a billionaire. I wasn't here for that five-year stretch following 2001, when you were prime minister. And remember in 2006, when you were ousted in that military coup? I missed that too.

But I'm here now. And every morning, I check the mailbox for my bribe. Am I looking in the wrong place? Maybe you've been hiding it under the banana tree by the patio?

In a recent issue of the Thai-language "Post Today" newspaper,  I read a Q&A with the head of Thailand's Foreign Correspondent's Club. When the subject of press bribes came up, the foreign journalist said, "This is a belief a lot of Thai people have. But it's a comical, unreasonable rumor."

He sure sounds disgruntled. Did you forget to pay him too?

Maybe you don't think I'm worth bribing. We can't claim the BBC's name recognition — yet! — but Global Post is adding more readers every day. We're the next big thing!

At first, I just couldn't believe you were really bribing foreign journalists. After all, they relentlessly reported on your "War on Drugs," which resulted in thousands of alleged extra-judicial police killings. And your alleged mismanagement following military abuse of Muslims in Thailand's deep south. And your alleged personal business dealings with the Burmese junta. And countless other corruption allegations.

Some pundits have pointed out this inconsistency, but I know the truth. You're just a generous guy who doesn't ask much in return.

In reporting this story, I was invited to an all-political TV station run by your sympathizers. There I was, surrounded all of your proxies, thinking, "This is it! This is when they pull me into a backroom and stuff my pants full of cash!"

But all they offered was a glass of water. And an energy drink.

Look, I know the Thai government has frozen most of your wealth and the recession has likely depleted your holdings.

So, you know what? I'll take half of what the BBC gets.

Just leave it under the banana tree.

Sincerely,

Patrick

Why America Won't Fight Thailand's Islamic Separatists

One of America's strongest Asian allies, Thailand, struggles to quell a gruesome killing campaign waged by Islamic separatists. The attacks have taken on eerie parallels to the Iraq war, with beheadings, roadside bombs and AK-47 ambushes occuring on a weekly basis. And the military is at a loss to tame the violence.

Hmmm. Wouldn't you think the U.S. military — steeped in experience battling Islamic insurgents and tight with Thailand since the Vietnam War — would want to lend a hand?

Well, some leaders in the U.S. military would love to. Certain factions in the Thai military would probably welcome the help. And though joint operations have been discussed behind the scenes, it will probably never happen.

Here's a look behind the curtain.

For years, the idea of propping up Thailand's fight against insurgents has circulated through U.S. Pacific Command, a massive military jurisdiction. Despite its size, almost no U.S. combat takes place in this sector — which is fortunate considering that it's mostly taken up by Russia, China and a vast, deep sea.

America's two ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are waged inside U.S. Central Command, which monitors the Middle East. That jurisdiction gets all the "Global War on Terror" glory. (That's the G.W.O.T. in militaryspeak. Pronounced "GWAHT.")

Still, U.S. Pacific Command has seen a little anti-terror action. Several hundred American troops have joined the Armed Force of the Philippines to combat an Islamic struggle to claim several large islands. And in that vein, some high-ranking officers have pushed for a similar campaign in Thailand, according to Zachary Abuza, a Boston-based expert on Thailand's southern insurgency.

Pacific Command has even placed a small special forces team with the Thai military for a tour of the violence-plagued south, Abuza said. A high-ranking commander, touting his U.S.-Philippine model, was eager to give the Thai military "pretty much anything it wants," he said. The U.S. military consulted Abuza himself, asking for ideas on special projects they could extend to court the Thais.

In late 2007, a U.S. Marine Corps major with the Naval War College even published a brief report titled, "Insurgency in Thailand: Time to Tame the Islamist Tiger?" The briefing warned of a spreading Islamic terror network and suggested U.S. special forces assistance — or at least the use of unmanned surveillance drones.

But every attempt fizzled.

"The State Department was against it. The U.S. embassy (in Bangkok) was against it," Abuza said. "And I think Washington was too consumed with Iraq to get involved."

Few believe that Thailand's separatist militants are connected to a global terror network, removing much of the incentive for American involvement. Inviting U.S. troops into the deep south might also cause Thailand's military to look impotent. Thailand's 2006 military coup  strained U.S. relations and further dimmed prospects of joint strikes in the south.

Backdoor politics aside, inviting U.S. troops to the Thai-Malay borderlands just isn't a good idea, said Srisompob Jitpiromsri with Thailand's Deep South Watch. American soldiers would likely just stoke the flames, he said, by attracting outside radicals.

"Once you have American assistance, you get conspiracy theories," Srisompob said. "Local people already believe there's a conspiracy with the U.S. and the Thais."

By the way: The above photo, shot by Abuza in the southern Narathiwat province, shows Thai troops in a jury-rigged "armed personnel carrier" with steel plates walling off the truck bed. This is a homemade defense against roadside bombs and AK-47 attacks.

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