Paul Ames's Notebook:

Dutch far-right gains in local elections

“Today, Almere and The Hague, tomorrow the Netherlands!”

Anti-Islam campaigner Geert Wilders was jubilant after Wednesday’s local municipal elections, predicting that his Party For Freedom (PVV) can repeat it’s success at the local level to become the biggest party in the Netherlands when the country elects a new government in June.

Although the PVV only ran in two cities, there was no doubt it was the big winner in the Dutch local vote, emerging as the strongest party in Almere, a commuter town near Amsterdam, and coming second in The Hague, the center of Dutch government.

In contrast, mainstream parties seemed in disarray a month after a dispute about whether to keep Dutch troops in Afghanistan led to a collapse in the coalition government.

Provisional results showed the Labor Party, which quit the government and wants to bring the troops home, remained the biggest party nationwide with 16 percent, a 5 percent drop. The Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and the conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy were neck-and-neck with 15 percent. The liberal D66 party was up to 8 percent and the Greens scored 7 percent.

In Almere, Wilder’s PVV scored 21 percent. Opinion polls suggest they could be the biggest party after the June 9 parliamentary election.

However the complex nature of Dutch politics means the centrist parties will probably be able to band together to prevent the premiership falling into the hands of the platinum blond firebrand who likens Islam to Nazism, wants to crack down on immigration, slash taxes and roll back the powers of the European Union.

Wilders will likely be in a strong position when the horse trading begins to cobble together a governing collation and there seems little doubt the success of the PVV’s ideas with the electorate will impact on the policies of whichever mainstream parties make up the next government.

Dutch government collapses

The collapse of the Dutch government after marathon talks on Afghanistan raises difficult questions both for future of NATO’s mission against the Taliban and the nature of politics in the Netherlands.

Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende announced in the small hours of Saturday morning that Labor Party ministers were resigning from the coalition government.

Balkenende’s center-right Christian Democratic Appeal and the conservative Christian Union party will stay on in government until elections likely to be held in May.

The cabinet split over a request from NATO for the Netherlands to extend the mission of its troops serving in Afghanistan’s troublesome southern province of Uruzgan. Most of the 1,900 soldiers in Afghanistan are stationed in Uruzgan.

NATO believes the Dutch troops have played an important role in providing relative stability in the province by building up close ties with local leaders and marginalizing the Taliban through a focus on diplomacy and development.

Allied commanders say the Dutch approach has been a model for the new wider NATO approach of focusing on building confidence and security in Afghanistan’s main population centers.

However, the Dutch parliament voted in 2007 to pull the troops out of Uruzgan mission this autumn, the Labor Party flatly refused to consider the NATO request for an extension, despite a direct appeal to its leader Wouter Bos from the Obama administration.

NATO officials fear any incoming replacement force will struggle to rebuild the trust Dutch officers have developed with tribal leaders in Uruzgan, undermining the fragile security there. They are also concerned a pull out could set an example for other allied nations — notably Canada which is under public opinion pressure to wind down its operation in Kandahar.

The Afghan mission in unpopular among Dutch public opinion. The Labor Party which has been dropping in the polls was unwilling to change its position on pulling out of Uruzgan ahead of municipal elections scheduled for next month.

The Netherlands now faces a period of political uncertainty ahead of the parliamentary elections. The in-fighting between Labor and the Christian Democrats within the coalition government may damage both the main parties in the eyes of the electorate, which could benefit the two rival opposition liberal parties or the radical new force in the country’s politics — the far right Freedom Party.

Over the past few years, the Freedom Party has risen to prominence under its stanchly anti-Islamic leader Geert Wilders who has likened the Koran to the writings of Adolf Hitler and warns about the growing influence of Muslim immigrants in the country. Mainstream politicians fear the Freedom Party could emerge as the biggest winner from the squabbling among traditional politicians.

Although the centrist parties are likely to band together to stop Wilders getting a toehold in the government, any gains by his party could see a further hardening of the traditional Dutch tolerance towards new immigrants.

As for NATO’s headache in Uruzgan, Western alliance could hope that Balkenende’s Christian Democrats and the liberals are able to form a new coalition more amenable to extending the mission. But the liberals are divided on the issue, and both the Freedom Party and smaller parties on the left are opposed to keeping the troops there. It looks likely allied commanders will have to draw up contingency plans for a Dutch withdrawal by the end of the year.

Belgium's deadly rail disaster

Belgians watched grimly as the rising death toll from Monday’s rush-hour train collision seemed certain to make the crash the country’s most deadly rail disaster since World War II.

Seven hours after the accident, the official fatality count was at 12, but railroad and local government officials were saying that up to 25 may have lost their lives, with dozens more injured.

The two packed regional commuter trains crashed close to 8.30 a.m. at the station of Halle, a city of 35,000, located about 20 kilometers southwest of Brussels.

Many of the passengers on both trains were able to walk away, but there was complete devastation in the front carriages of both. Victims remained trapped inside hours after the crash as rescue services working in freezing temperatures struggled to cut them free from the tangle of twisted metal.

The cause of the crash was under investigation, witnesses said a train pulling out of the station was picking up speed when it smashed into the first two carriages of the second train. Both appeared to be on convergent tracks and there was speculation the driver of one of the trains had ignored a stop signal. The area was under several centimeters of snow, but experts said weather was unlikely to have been a factor in the accident.

Halle is on the route taken by the high-speed trains linking Brussels to London and Paris and services to both cities were halted causing widespread disruption.

Prime Minister Yves Leterme cut short a visit to Kosovo to visit the site of the crash along with King Albert II. The crash came on the first day of the country’s carnival school holidays, so officials said there were mercifully fewer children than normal on the trains.

According to the national news agency, Belgium’s worst rail accident before Monday’s crash came in December 1954, when 20 people died when a train carrying German soccer supporters derailed.

European leaders express solidarity with Greece

European Union leaders have come up with a deal offering "determined and co-ordinated action, if needed,” to rescue Greek public finances which have been battered by markets since revelations last October that the country's budget deficit was double the expected level.

The crisis has raised fears that Greece could default on its national debt, spread financial chaos to Spain, Portugal and other eurozone nations and even spell the demise of the decade-old EU currency.

The EU summit stressed that Greece is not yet asking for a bailout plan, but by expressing solidarity with Athens, the leaders are hoping to calm the markets which have sent European shares and the euro tumbling. However, the EU leaders made clear they will need firm commitments from Greece that the country will put its finances in order under a strict timetable in return for any bailout.

"We call on the Greek government to implement all these measures in a rigorous and determined manner to effectively reduce the budgetary deficit by 4 percent in 2010," the leaders said in a statement. The deficit was estimated at 12.7 percent last year.

Germany, the EU's biggest economic power, would have to take the lead in assisting Greece and is insisting on iron-clad guarantees that Athens will get its finances under control.

Berlin has been particularly wary of upsetting its taxpayers by using their money to support a country which has flouted euro-zone rules on tight public finances and even presenting inaccurate official data for years to hide the scale of its deficit.

However, in the end concern for the impact of a Greek default on the stability of the euro appears to have overcome the distaste of handing over money to Athens.

Europe's offer of support removes the risk that the International Monetary Fund would have to intervene to rescue the Greek economy — a humiliating prospect for the eurozone. However, the EU summit chairman Herman Van Rompuy said the Europeans would call on IMF technical support in looking at additional austerity measures needed to bring Greek finances in line.

Dutch politicians come under fire for decision to support Iraq war

Seven years after the invasion of Iraq opened up deep divisions among Europe’s politicians, the aftershocks are still being felt by the continent’s governments.

While British politicians and civil servants are being grilled by a public inquiry, the Dutch government is coming under pressure over the results of an investigation published this week into the Netherlands’ decision to offer political support to the U.S.-led attack on Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Center-right Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende has come under attack from his Socialist coalition partners for rejecting some of the criticism of the special committee. Led by a retired Supreme Court judge, the inquiry found that the invasion lacked a proper international mandate and concluded that Balkenende had failed to fully inform parliament.

The Labor Party regretted Balkenende’s dismissal of the criticism and called for a new government statement that reflects the “worrying and harsh” conclusions of the committee. The row has prompted fears of a government crisis. The center-left party was in opposition during the run up to the war, but has since joined Balkenende’s Christian Democratic Appeal party in a coalition government.

While is seems unlikely the dispute will bring down Balkenende’s government, it could have an impact on the on-going debate on the future role of Dutch troops in Afghanistan.

A Dutch contingent of around 2,000 has been much praised for its work in southern Uruzgan province, considered one of the most difficult parts of the country by NATO commanders. However the government says that mission will come to an end this year and debate is raging in the country about whether the Dutch military involvement should continue in some other form.