William Dowell's Notebook:

Initial discussions with Iran look promising

GENEVA — U.S. diplomats hadn’t expected much more than an initial contact from today’s meeting between Iran, and the group of 5 + 1, which consists of the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

By that standard, the meeting has to be considered a success. The key U.S. demand was that Iran agree to completely open access for experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to visit a newly discovered uranium enrichment site near Qom, an important Iranian religious center.

The Iranians have agreed to that in principle, and say they will send an invitation to the inspectors within the next few weeks.

More importantly, the Iranians have also agreed to a second meeting before the end of October, in which they have agreed to work out a structure for opening a dialogue on security and nuclear non-proliferation issues.

In exchange, it was agreed that Iran would be provided with sufficient enriched uranium to be able to continue to run a small nuclear reactor used to produce radioactive isotopes for medical purposes. The isotopes have a half life, which decays so quickly that it makes sense to manufacture them on the spot where they are likely to be used.

U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Bill Burns, met informally for 45 minutes with his Iranian counterpart, Sayyid Jalili, in a small room adjacent to the main conference room. U.S. diplomats said that the free flowing discussions had lasted seven and a half hours.

European foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Jalili both gave press conferences. The U.S. stayed off camera. Solana told reporters that he thought the Iranians realized that they were facing a situation that was different from previous encounters.

A key U.S. demand is that Iran should agree to open inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the clandestine uranium enrichment plant recently identified near Qom. The Iranians have accepted in principle to let investigators see the plant within the next few weeks, and a U.S. senior diplomat said that IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei is expected to be in Tehran this weekend to work out details.

Another issue that had concerned the Iranians is a small nuclear reactor that is used to produce radioactive isotopes for medical research. The reactor, which is under IAEA supervision, will run out of fuel in the next 18 months. The U.S. and Russia have proposed that Iran provide some of its lightly enriched uranium, which the Russians can further enrich to 19.75 percent, and then ship back to Iran for use under IAEA supervision. Everyone seems on board for that solution, which will also reduce the amount of lightly enriched uranium that Iran has already stockpiled. The IAEA will have a meeting in Vienna on Oct. 18 to work out details.

As for the private side bar discussion between the U.S. and Iran, senior U.S. diplomats here said that it was significant that Iran, which had refused to discuss its nuclear program earlier, is now willing to open a dialogue with the U.S. No one expects it to be easy, and the U.S. is emphasizing that the discussions will not be open ended.

Speaking to reporters, here, Sayid Jalili said that Iran also feels that there needs to be more international cooperation to guarantee world security. Jalili pointed out that the major nuclear powers have done little to reduce their own nuclear stockpiles, and he said that other nations had remained quiet when threats had been made about taking military action against Iran’s nuclear installations.

The bottom line, Jalili indicated, is that no countries should have nuclear weapons, and all countries should have access to nuclear power for peaceful use. That may be an unrealistic goal, but Jalili is clearly arguing that for a dialogue to succeed, and both sides will have to be ready to make concessions.

The view from Europe of Obama's first 100 days in office

There is no question that Barack Obama is clearly a star on the European scene. In his first 100 days in office, Obama has impressed Europeans with his charm and humor. More importantly, he has put the United States back on the path of international cooperation and partnership, which ironically may do more than anything else to reestablish it as a world leader. Admittedly, after the disastrous failures of the Bush administration, almost any change would look good.

As Europeans see it, Obama has said all the right things. The question now is whether the administration will follow through and back its words with action.

Le Temps, Geneva’s leading international newspaper, caught the mood in today’s headline: “President Obama has exploded the wall of contempt and silence in which the U.S. had enclosed itself. The most difficult challenge lies ahead.” The Tribune de Geneve described Obama’s first 100 days as moving at a racer’s pace.

Obama impressed nearly everyone at the G20 meeting in London, partly because few other leaders on the world stage have his charisma and charm, or are as articulate in expressing their ideas. In Istanbul, Obama’s portrait is seen everywhere on a poster with a bank advertisement, and that is in spite of the current financial crisis.

In France, his image has been used on travel posters advertising recession-proof vacations with the slogan: “Yes, we can!” But beyond Obama’s obvious personal appeal, the administration has shown itself surprisingly adept at making the right moves in foreign policy. Hillary Clinton’s first official trip to Europe as secretary of state was a virtuoso performance; she quietly lined up support from NATO members in Brussels before meeting Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva to discuss strategic arms limitation.

Obama has been so successful at speaking to Muslims that Islamic extremist groups are concerned that the U.S. may be able to renew its former influence in the Middle East. Obama deftly opened the door to discussions with Iran, but wisely did not show up at the recent United Nations conference on racism at which Iranian President Ahmadinejad lashed out once again at Israel. As a result, Obama appeared open and reasonable, while Ahmadinejad alarmed European audiences.

At the U.S. mission to the European headquarters of the United Nations here in Geneva there is clearly satisfaction that the United States is returning to its traditional role as a world leader on human rights, international law and humanitarian issues. The one concern is that the administration has been slow at filling key administration posts, and as new challenges inevitably arise, it may find itself stretched thin.

Tracking the swine flu epidemic

GENEVA — Until now, the World Health Organization, headquartered here in Geneva, has focused most of its attention on the threat of a potential avian flu epidemic spread by migrating birds, but the swine flu epidemic in Mexico has now definitely caught everyone’s attention.


The situation is considered serious enough to have forced Margaret Chan, the Director General of the World Health Organization, to cut short a trip to the U.S. and return to Geneva. Chan called an emergency meeting of a special board of experts on epidemics to analyze the situation. It was the first time the board has met since it was formed two years ago. The major contribution so far has been to launch a world wide alert to look for where the disease may pop up next.

"We do not yet have a complete picture of the epidemiology or the risk, including possible spread beyond the currently affected areas," said Chan (click here for an audio briefing by Chan)

Just how dangerous a flu epidemic can be was proved by the 1918 flu pandemic, which spread to nearly every part of the globe, infected half the world’s population and killed more people than World War I. That epidemic reached the arctic circle and some of the most remote islands in the South Pacific.

The Mexican flu is a new variation of a virus whose technical name is A/H1N1. The 1918 epidemic was also classified as H1N1, but the symptoms this time around appear milder. One cause for concern, however, is the fact that the flu is attacking healthy young adults rather than children and older people, who are normally the first to be affected by flu. The 1918 epidemic also attacked mostly healthy young adults.

No one has died from the flu in the U.S., so far, and the deaths in Mexico may be partly the result of people not identifying the seriousness of the illness in time to seek treatment. Mexican health authorities say they have sufficient quantities of antiviral medicine which is effective against this type of flu. It is safe to say that most people in Mexico are now aware of the danger and are likely to seek medical help if they detect the flu’s telltale signs.

The epidemic in Mexico began in mid-March, but only began to attract international notice after it appeared in the U.S. At least seven cases have been reported in southern California, two in Guadeloupe County, Texas, two in Kansas, and five in St. Francis’ preparatory school in New York City’s bureau of Queens.

The fact that everyone is now on the alert is likely to lead to a lot more reports of swine flu being reported. The trick is for epidemiologists to determine whether the cases are related or not. That involves a certain amount of detective work in tracking down the cause of infection for each case. At least 18 cases of the Mexican flu were identified by a laboratory in Canada as A/H1N1 swine flue, and 12 of these were genetically identical to the cases in California.

While the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, the Ministry of Health in Mexico and the Pan American Health Organization are monitoring the current situation in Mexico, Latin America and the U.S., the World Health Organization is taking responsibility for monitoring signs of potential outbreaks in the rest of the world.

Health officials in New York are still trying to determine if there is a connection between the outbreak in Queens and the one in Mexico, but the cases, are a reminder that in an age of global air travel diseases can spread quickly and pop up in the most unexpected places.

In Kansas, a couple living in the central part of the state contracted the disease after the husband returned from a conference in Mexico and passed the flu on to his wife.

The World Health Organization emphasizes that while the situation warrants being on the alert it is too early to know how far it will spread. In the meantime, it makes sense to take normal precautions. That includes washing one’s hands regularly, and checking with a doctor if flu symptoms appear. These include a fever, aching joints, sore throat, coughing and respiratory congestion.
 

Taking in the Hillary and Sergey show in Geneva

GENEVA — Despite a camouflaged armored car parked in the rain outside the Intercontinental Hotel, an intense two-hour dinner with Hillary Clinton and Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, seems to have ended on a surprisingly upbeat note, and each calling the other by their first names.

There were one or two glitches. In a hastily rigged photo op, Secretary of State Clinton attempted to present Lavrov with a large red “reset” button wrapped in green paper. The idea was to break the ice by signaling that the Obama administration is ready for fresh start.

“We really worked on the translation. We hope we got it right,” Hillary told Lavrov. Not quite, Lavrov corrected her. Actually the Russian word that Clinton’s aides had come up with means ‘overload.’ Clinton responded that she would never allow that, and then she quipped to reporters here that with the work schedule she and Lavrov have worked out, they are both likely to be overloaded.

Clinton aides emphasized that the Obama administration has three major areas of concern that it wants to get Russian cooperation on: disarmament, Iran and Afghanistan.

The Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty intended to limit the number of nuclear weapons that grew out of the Cold War runs out at the end of the year, and needs to be seriously updated. Lavrov pointed out that as the treaty stands now, the United States would actually need to increase the number of nuclear weapons it had. “That would send a bad signal,” he said. Clinton and Lavrov both said that they are determined to come up with a new document by next December, and they have already started preliminary work on it.

Clinton said that a major discussion during the two-hour dinner in the hotel’s panoramic restaurant had focused on the concern that both the United States and Russia have about keeping nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of an irresponsible power. That is diplomatic code for Iran, and Lavrov seemed to have no problems with the chracterization. “Russia does not sell weapons that destabilize other countries,” he said.

On Afghanistan, Clinton praised Russia for agreeing not to block transport of non-lethal supplies to U.S. forces there. More important, Lavrov confirmed that Russia is ready to take part in a special meeting on Afghanistan at the end of March. The Iranians will also be invited to the meeting, along with a number of other parties involved. The Iranians have an interest in not seeing the fighting in Afghanistan spill over to their own territory, so the meeting could offer a discrete opportunity for opening a dialogue with Iran on issues that both sides can agree on.

As for the Caucuses, Clinton made it clear that the United States will continue to support Georgia and any other European country that wants to join a larger alliance of countries — diplomatic code for NATO. But she added that a NATO-Russia liaison group, which had suspended meetings after the Russians invaded Georgia last August, would now resume. “We want to talk about those things that we have in common,” she said, “but we also want to discuss those areas where we disagree.” Clinton emphasized that every aspect of U.S.-Russian relations would be open for re-examination.

Clinton and Lavrov are both laying the groundwork for the first one-on-one meeting between President Barack Obama and Russia’s president Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev, which is scheduled for the G20 summit in London at the beginning of April. The trick for Clinton during this meeting was to convey the new administration’s openness and readiness to redefine relations, while at the same time leaving no doubt that there are certain areas that the United States will not back down on. It seems to have worked, and Lavrov, at least, seemed on board. “We want to make sure,” he told reporters, “that the button we push isn’t kind that starts a war.” So far, so good.

Tamils mourn suicide, protest lack of international concern over war in Sri Lanka.

GENEVA — A group of ethnic Tamils gathered in Geneva recently to attend the funeral in a Catholic Church for Murukathasan Vanakulasingam, a 27-year-old computer science graduate who had been working stacking shelves in a British supermarket before dousing himself with gasoline and setting himself on fire here to protest the bloody war in Sri Lanka.

Murukathasan had flown to Geneva a week before staging his martyrdom in front of the gates of the United Nations on Thursday, Feb. 12. His suicide was intended to protest what he saw as the silence of the international community to the conflict, which TIME magazine recently called the third most underreported international news story.

“I have no words to wake up the international community,” Murukathasan wrote in a final letter, found 30 feet from his charred body. “The flames over my body will be a torch to guide Tamils to the path of liberation.”

The irony is that Murukathasan’s death went virtually unreported in the Swiss press for nearly a week. His parents learned of it through Tamil-oriented blogs.

Friends said that Murukathasan had become increasingly angry after listening to news reports about Sri Lanka, and that he had finally cracked after hearing allegations that government troops had forced 120 Tamil women to have abortions.

Sri Lanka’s government has launched an all-out assault to finish the Tamil Tiger rebellion once and for all, and sees the war ending soon. But Tamils attending the funeral service here in Geneva told me that even if the last of the fighters is eliminated, the rebellion would continue until either the government awards Tamils rights equal to Sri Lanka’s dominant Sinhalese population, or agrees to let the Tamils have their own separate homeland.

Human rights organizations have condemned both Sri Lanka’s government and the Tamil Tigers. The government is accused of bombing hospitals and safe zones in an effort to get at the rebels. The Tamil Tiger rebels are blamed for using the civilian population as human shields, for recruiting child soldiers, and for dispatching suicide bombers to attack government officials.

Regardless of who is right or wrong in the conflict, the suffering and human costs of the conflict are hard to ignore.

With such intense emotional baggage on both sides in the conflict, it is hard to see a workable resolution occurring any time soon. Murukathasan’s sacrifice was honored by some, but more thoughtful Tamils also cautioned against repeats. “We don’t want any further incidents like this,” said Thaya Idaklkadder, a Tamil leader in England. “Even though I appreciate and admire his courage and what he has done, I am pleading with people not to do it.”  

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