Karzai's back ...

The political fortunes of Afghanistan's embattled president may have improved, but can Hamid Karzai really hang on?

Jean MacKenzieMarch 19, 2009 15:30Updated May 30, 2010 11:47

Afghan President Hamid Karzai attends the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) summit in Tehran March 11, 2009. (Caren Firouz/Reuters)

KABUL — Trying to keep score in Afghanistan’s presidential race is enough to induce vertigo. The cast of characters changes daily, along with the date of the poll. The incumbent either has no chance or is a shoo-in, depending on the time of day and the political persuasion of the analyst.

At the center of all the fuss is President Hamid Karzai, whose political fortunes have recently ebbed and flowed like a tsunami.

Just a few weeks ago, the president’s reelection bid was all but moribund, with experienced Afghan watchers predicting civil disturbance if he tried to run in the August poll. Now, many of those same voices are singing in the key of Karzai.

“It’s starting to look as if no one could beat him,” said the leader of a prominent international organization, who has been in Afghanistan for several years. “It’s almost sure to be Karzai again.”

Another Afghan expert, who has written books on the political history of the country, agreed.
“The United States is going to back Karzai,” he said, speaking privately. “The American Embassy in Kabul has been told to stop criticizing him.”

Karzai has been fighting a bitter and public battle with the United States for the past several months. Hand-picked to lead the transitional government in 2001 by then-U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, he enjoyed a close relationship with Washington during the Bush administration.

But as the Afghanistan conflict went from “good war” to “quagmire,” both sides of the partnership began to back away. Karzai tried to distance himself from an increasingly unpopular foreign presence, while Washington adopted a new and tougher stance toward its erstwhile ally.

Barack Obama has publicly criticized Karzai for being out of touch and ineffectual, while his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, called Afghanistan a “narco-state” whose government is “plagued by limited capacity and widespread corruption.”

Karzai’s spats with Vice President Joe Biden have become the stuff of legend in Kabul — two meetings in one year ended with either Biden or Karzai storming out, according to palace insiders.

So when U.S. Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke visited Kabul in February, most western and Afghan observers took for granted that he had come to urge Karzai not to run.

“(Holbrooke) told Karzai that it was over,” said one western election worker, who met with high-ranking members of the Afghan government. “He also told the United National Front that the United States would support whichever candidate they chose to put up.”