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The New Year is a time for predictions, so here are some for 2011.
BOSTON – The New Year is a time for predictions, so here are a few for 2011. U.S. President Barack Obama will not earn his Nobel Peace Prize retroactively by bringing peace to the Middle East this year. Israel will not halt its settlement activity, and the Palestinians will not enter serious negotiations.
The United States will pressure Israel and the Palestinians to talk about the borders of a Palestinian state, but these talks will fail when the Israelis refuse to put East Jerusalem on the table, and the Palestinians fail to meet Israel’s security demands.
Turkey’s economic boom will continue to outpace Europe, but prospects for joining the European Union will virtually die. The Turks will continue their eastward policy of strengthening ties with Iraq, Iran and Pakistan. Plans for upgrading a railroad linking Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Turkey will be announced.
Security in Iraq will deteriorate in 2011. Political and ethnic rivalries will continue on their destructive path, with the center of violence shifting to the Kurdish north. Tensions between Kurds and Arabs will strengthen. The withdrawal of American troops from Iraq will continue on schedule.
Security will improve in Afghanistan’s Helmand and Kandahar provinces because of American fire power, but will continue to deteriorate in the rest of Afghanistan. The drifting away of our NATO allies will pick up its pace. Support for the war among the American people will weaken, but the gain of Republican war-party strength in Congress will lessen the political pressure on Obama to reduce troop strength. There will be another major Afghan review, but the Obama administration will delay any major decisions until after the 2012 general election.
Pakistan will bend to intense American pressure to allow more U.S. special operations teams to enter the tribal territories on the Northwest Frontier, hoping it can be done below the radar of Pakistani politics. But word will leak out, increasing anti-Americanism in Pakistan and enabling the Taliban. Terrorist attacks will increase inside Pakistan, further destabilizing the country.
An Indian Taliban will began to stir among India’s oppressed Muslims, brining recriminations from India that Pakistan is behind the spread of extremist violence.
Secret efforts will be made to bring a solution to the Kashmir question, but WikiLeaks will expose them and all talks will cease among recriminations and finger pointing.
North Korea will commit another outrage against the south, despite China’s call for calm, but retaliation will be avoided. North Korea will increase, and continue to flaunt, its nuclear arsenal.
Sanctions against Iran will tighten, but Iranian activity toward making a nuclear weapon will not slacken. Israel will continue to threaten, but will not bomb Iran without American approval, which will not be forthcoming in 2011. The West will make plans for containing Iran, and the United States will offer to extend its nuclear umbrella over the Persian Gulf States.
China will continue to increase its naval strength in its march to create a “Mare Nostrum” in the China Seas. There will be continuing incidents highlighting territorial disputes with neighbors over scraps of rock and islands which might or might not have oil deposits.