Sizing up Mexico’s war on drugs
SAN DIEGO — As parties to a complicated marriage born of an even more complicated history, Americans and Mexicans don’t always agree on much.
But, unfortunately, and in a most depressing way, many people on both sides of the border seem to agree on at least two things: (1) Mexican President Felipe Calderon is right to be battling those ruthless drug cartels in Mexico; and (2) it’s a match-up that Calderon is destined to lose.
About 70 percent of Mexicans surveyed in polls by Mexican newspapers support Calderon’s increasingly violent war against the cartels, which has resulted in nearly 8,000 deaths since January 2007. And yet, by roughly the same margin — 70 percent — Mexicans are also sure that the cartels can’t be defeated. This is typical Mexican fatalism and a willingness to give in to a challenge that seems too daunting to be tamed.
What is more disturbing is that many Americans — their famous “can do” spirit notwithstanding — seem to feel pretty much the same way. Granted, on this side of the border, the skepticism about how the Mexican drug war will turn out has a lot to do with perceptions of the U.S. drug war. For those who believe that the anti-drug initiative was a waste of time and money, they’re just as likely to think that Calderon is wasting his time and money — actually, make that his time and our money.
Congress has approved $1.4 billion in aid to Mexico, even though very little of it has made its way to the Calderon government. Most of the first installment — $400 million — got stuck in the bureaucratic pipeline, somewhere between Washington and Mexico City.
One person who could help unclog the pipeline and get the Merida funds flowing south is President Barack Obama. In his meeting Thursday with Calderon in Mexico City, Obama acknowledged that the United States must work with its neighbor to combat drug violence in both countries.
"It is absolutely critical that the United States joins as a full partner in dealing with this issue, both through initiatives like the Merida Initiative but also on our side of the border in dealing with the flow of guns and cash south," Obama said at a ceremony in Mexico City alongside Calderon.
And yet, what’s interesting is that most Americans may not be aware that the Mexican government might just be winning the war against the narco-traffickers. There have been three takedowns of major drug figures in recent weeks, the latest including Vicente Carrillo Leyva in Ciudad Juarez. With more than 20,000 narcos arrested, and thousands more killed, it’s no wonder that the cartels are running scared and fighting back with everything from intimidation to terrorism. They’re even trying to manipulate the political process in the hopes of dealing a setback to Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) in the July midterm elections and perhaps returning to power the discredited Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
The cartels are doing all this not because they’re afraid of being eradicated. No, they’re afraid of the same thing that other businesses worry about: diminishing profit margins. They’re used to making a fortune by selling drugs to Americans who are willing to pay top dollar. But now, with Calderon and U.S. officials confiscating more of their shipments headed north, they’re watching their profit margins shrink and having to make painful adjustments.
One of the cartels’ more desperate stopgap measures is their decision to sell more narcotics domestically, within the country of Mexico. This isn’t terribly profitable; Mexicans aren’t willing to buy retail like the Americans, only wholesale. And it’s also dangerous in the worst way. It was one thing when drugs were flowing north to ruin lives and destroy families in the United States, and it’s another when the wreckage of those lives and families are in Mexico.
Remember one thing: There is no more sacred institution in Mexico than the family. And, once Mexicans realize that their families are being torn apart by drug cartels, there could come a day where the population turns against the drug lords and actually starts rooting for their government in its bid to destroy them.
For the sake of both countries, let’s hope that day comes soon.
Ruben Navarrette Jr. is a member of the editorial board of the San Diego Union-Tribune, a nationally syndicated columnist with the Washington Post Writers Group and a weekly contributor to cnn.com.
Click here for an overview of GlobalPost’s coverage of Mexico’s drug war.