Mexican Federal policemen patrol the street to Ciudad Juarez, March 2, 2009. Nearly 4,000 Mexican soldiers and federal police poured into Ciudad Juarez in early March to restore law and order to the country's most violent city. (Daniel Aguilar/Reuters)

Sizing up Mexico's war on drugs

Opinion: The Mexican government might just be winning the war against narco-traffickers.

By Ruben Navarrette - Special to GlobalPost
Published: April 17, 2009 05:45 ET
Updated: April 23, 2009 10:38 ET

SAN DIEGO — As parties to a complicated marriage born of an even more complicated history, Americans and Mexicans don’t always agree on much.

But, unfortunately, and in a most depressing way, many people on both sides of the border seem to agree on at least two things: (1) Mexican President Felipe Calderon is right to be battling those ruthless drug cartels in Mexico; and (2) it’s a match-up that Calderon is destined to lose.

About 70 percent of Mexicans surveyed in polls by Mexican newspapers support Calderon’s increasingly violent war against the cartels, which has resulted in nearly 8,000 deaths since January 2007. And yet, by roughly the same margin — 70 percent — Mexicans are also sure that the cartels can’t be defeated. This is typical Mexican fatalism and a willingness to give in to a challenge that seems too daunting to be tamed.

What is more disturbing is that many Americans — their famous “can do” spirit notwithstanding — seem to feel pretty much the same way. Granted, on this side of the border, the skepticism about how the Mexican drug war will turn out has a lot to do with perceptions of the U.S. drug war. For those who believe that the anti-drug initiative was a waste of time and money, they’re just as likely to think that Calderon is wasting his time and money — actually, make that his time and our money.

Congress has approved $1.4 billion in aid to Mexico, even though very little of it has made its way to the Calderon government. Most of the first installment — $400 million — got stuck in the bureaucratic pipeline, somewhere between Washington and Mexico City.

One person who could help unclog the pipeline and get the Merida funds flowing south is President Barack Obama. In his meeting Thursday with Calderon in Mexico City, Obama acknowledged that the United States must work with its neighbor to combat drug violence in both countries.

"It is absolutely critical that the United States joins as a full partner in dealing with this issue, both through initiatives like the Merida Initiative but also on our side of the border in dealing with the flow of guns and cash south," Obama said at a ceremony in Mexico City alongside Calderon.

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Posted by dag on April 19, 2009 13:00 ET

No doubt, it's important that the horrific violence in Mexico be stemmed and the responsible parties brought to justice. But it is also important to be skeptical that the so-called 'War on Drugs' can ever be won. Throughout its expensive history the program has no record of success and suffers from a basic ignorance of economics.

It is basic to our understanding of economies that when the supply of something goes down, demand for it goes up. Thus, when government agents remove drugs from the marketplace (reducing supply), it only causes demand for the drugs to rise. And as demand rises, so do the drug prices. The more successful our drug-policing efforts, the more drug prices go up. And the more the prices go up, the more people there are who are ready and willing to get into the business of selling drugs.

Thus, it is an unwinable situation. Even if you were to shut down every cartel, every producer, every common drug pusher, and take 100% of the drugs off the streets – all this would do is create an enormous incentive for people to get into the business of selling drugs, and ever larger policing forces would be needed to stem the tide of entrepreneurs. The idea that you can overcome these basic economic tenets is foolhardy. However, it's exactly the idea we commit billions of dollars to each year. With drug violence raging and budget deficits rising, it is time to rethink the War on Drugs. Instead of continuing with the same old ineffective policies, we should look at alternatives that actually have a chance of working.

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