Sizing up Mexico's war on drugs

Opinion: The Mexican government might just be winning the war against narco-traffickers.

By Ruben Navarrette - Special to GlobalPost
Published: April 17, 2009 05:45 ET
Updated: April 23, 2009 10:38 ET
Page 2 of 2

 

And yet, what’s interesting is that most Americans may not be aware that the Mexican government might just be winning the war against the narco-traffickers. There have been three  takedowns of major drug figures in recent weeks, the latest including Vicente Carrillo Leyva in Ciudad Juarez. With more than 20,000 narcos arrested, and thousands more killed, it’s no wonder that the cartels are running scared and fighting back with everything from intimidation to terrorism. They’re even trying to manipulate the political process in the hopes of dealing a setback to Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) in the July midterm elections and perhaps returning to power the discredited Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

The cartels are doing all this not because they’re afraid of being eradicated. No, they’re afraid of the same thing that other businesses worry about: diminishing profit margins. They’re used to making a fortune by selling drugs to Americans who are willing to pay top dollar. But now, with Calderon and U.S. officials confiscating more of their shipments headed north, they’re watching their profit margins shrink and having to make painful adjustments.

One of the cartels' more desperate stopgap measures is their decision to sell more narcotics domestically, within the country of Mexico. This isn’t terribly profitable; Mexicans aren’t willing to buy retail like the Americans, only wholesale. And it’s also dangerous in the worst way. It was one thing when drugs were flowing north to ruin lives and destroy families in the United States, and it’s another when the wreckage of those lives and families are in Mexico.

Remember one thing: There is no more sacred institution in Mexico than the family. And, once Mexicans realize that their families are being torn apart by drug cartels, there could come a day where the population turns against the drug lords and actually starts rooting for their government in its bid to destroy them.

For the sake of both countries, let's hope that day comes soon.

Ruben Navarrette Jr. is a member of the editorial board of the San Diego Union-Tribune, a nationally syndicated columnist with the Washington Post Writers Group and a weekly contributor to cnn.com.

Click here for an overview of GlobalPost's coverage of Mexico's drug war.

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The cross-border bullet trade

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The American-Mexican drug war

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Posted by dag on April 19, 2009 13:00 ET

No doubt, it's important that the horrific violence in Mexico be stemmed and the responsible parties brought to justice. But it is also important to be skeptical that the so-called 'War on Drugs' can ever be won. Throughout its expensive history the program has no record of success and suffers from a basic ignorance of economics.

It is basic to our understanding of economies that when the supply of something goes down, demand for it goes up. Thus, when government agents remove drugs from the marketplace (reducing supply), it only causes demand for the drugs to rise. And as demand rises, so do the drug prices. The more successful our drug-policing efforts, the more drug prices go up. And the more the prices go up, the more people there are who are ready and willing to get into the business of selling drugs.

Thus, it is an unwinable situation. Even if you were to shut down every cartel, every producer, every common drug pusher, and take 100% of the drugs off the streets – all this would do is create an enormous incentive for people to get into the business of selling drugs, and ever larger policing forces would be needed to stem the tide of entrepreneurs. The idea that you can overcome these basic economic tenets is foolhardy. However, it's exactly the idea we commit billions of dollars to each year. With drug violence raging and budget deficits rising, it is time to rethink the War on Drugs. Instead of continuing with the same old ineffective policies, we should look at alternatives that actually have a chance of working.

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