The Southern African Development Community (SADC) region’s rainy season has been erratic and patchy, while normal to above-normal rainfall conditions should prevail through April to June 2013.
Below-normal rainfall persisted over most of the western band of the region since the beginning of the season, the Regional Climate Services’ Centre in Gaborone, Botswana stated in its weather outlook for the SADC region from April to June issued on Monday.
“The diminished rainfall performance was more concentrated over Namibia, southern Angola and western Zambia. Normal rainfall conditions were substantially spread over the eastern part of the region,” it stated.
Neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO - a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years) conditions continued.
However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were slightly below-normal over the eastern half of the Pacific, and slightly above-normal over the western Pacific. SSTs were much enhanced over the northern half of the Indian Ocean.
The southern half of Malawi, western parts of Mozambique, southern half of Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, the extreme south of Angola, Swaziland, Lesotho and the bulk of South Africa is expected to receive a high likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall.
The western half of Madagascar has a high likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall, while the eastern half of Madagascar might get normal to above-normal rainfall, and Mauritius above-normal to normal rainfall.