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Top economists reveal what they think the jobs report will say.
Economists are closely watching tomorrow's jobs report, with expectations for a 100K print when the July report is finally released tomorrow at 8:30 a.m.
Below, forecasts from some of the Street's top names.
RBC (Tom Porcelli): +60K — Headline NFP will be quite interesting and could disappoint in a major way. The miss here would stem from seasonal adjustment difficulties in the local government education component. Recent years have seen sharper than usual NSA declines in this component and the seasonal factors do not seem aggressive enough to capture this.
DEUTSCHE BANK (Joe LaVorgna): +75K — We sense that the labor market is starting to gain greater traction, but this is unlikely to show up in the July jobs data. This is because there has been a strong seasonal tendency for payrolls to be weak at this time of year
WELLS FARGO (John Silvia): +77K — Given the numerous risks to the outlook, we expect real GDP to advanced at a sluggish 1.2 percent pace for the remainder of the year. At that pace, employment growth would remain lackluster and should only slowly grow back to trend, which we see at around a 150,000 rate.
JEFFRIES (Ward McCarthy): + 80K — Many public school teachers, in addition to some other public school employees, are hired on a ten month calendar that runs from September through June, large-scale layoffs occurring in July and large-scale hiring occurring in September. The July layoffs tend to run in excess of one million, so even a small percentage deviation from the norm can have a significant effect on the data.
JANNEY MONTGOMERY SCOTT (Guy LeBas): +84K — Considering the claims data, we’re calling for nonfarm payrolls to advance by another meager reading of 84K and private jobs growing by 100K, the difference being more government cutbacks.
CREDIT AGRICOLE (Michael Carey): +90K — Household survey data on job market conditions were mixed. The consumer confidence survey reported a decline in both the percentage of respondents indicating "jobs hard to get" and "jobs plentiful." The ADP July employment gain came in stronger then expectations. While the ADP does a decent job of tracking payrolls over time, monthly divergences can be significant.
RAYMOND JAMES (Scott Brown): +90K — Last year, the economy shed 1.4 million education jobs (public and private) before seasonal adjustment, but added 193,000 in construction, manufacturing, retail, and leisure. Is the market really going to worry about the nearest 20,000 in the adjusted figure? Yes.
RBS (Michelle Girard): +95K — We believe that the disappointing pace of employment growth can be attributed at least in part to firms staying on the sidelines in the face of continued uncertainty emanating from the looming fiscal cliff and the Eurozone crisis. To the sure, companies remain well-positioned to hire and invest.
BBVA (Nathaniel Carp): +100K — Aggregated demand has grown at a slow pace which in turn reduces the need to boost investment and hiring by private industries. Most of the growth will be on the services sector with professional services, healthcare and education providing support.
BARCLAYS (Dean Maki): +100K — Negative factors in the employment outlook include the employment diffusion index, which has softened recently, and the number of workers employed part-time for economic reasons, which has gradually trended higher in recent months. Offsetting this has been a decline in the VIX relative to previous months, which we have found supportive of hiring.
MORGAN STANLEY (David Greenlaw): +110K — Moreover, industry reports reveal that several plants remained open this year to catch up on production orders. The bottom line is that we expect to see a 10,000 to 20,000 artificial boost in manufacturing payrolls during July. Additionally, we expect to see a rebound in the healthcare sector, which was unusually subdued in June.
UBS (Maury Harris): +115K — An improvement in payroll gains has been signaled by jobless claims. The recent declines in jobless claims probably partly reflected faulty seasonal adjustment for the annual auto plant shutdowns rather than indicating new strength in the labor market.
TD SECURITIES (Eric Green): +118K — While better the recent iterations, it is clearly not good enough, and this will be the primary theme from the Fed over coming weeks.
SOCIETE GENERALE (Brian Jones): +165K — A combination of modestly improving fundamentals and a favourable calendar configuration is expected to produce the largest increase in payroll employment since February. Other labour market gauges, however, are expected to be little changed from those of recent months.
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