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The global market for drones is booming. But what does the coming arms race mean for US national security interests — and the future of warfare? GlobalPost correspondents report from critical locations around the world, from Israel to Iran to Yemen to Brazil — where unmanned aerial vehicles are radically transforming combat and surveillance.

China Police Surveillance Drone
A surveillance drone is displayed during the China International Exhibition on Police Equipment 2012 in Beijing. China will spend 111.6 billion USD on its police forces in 2012, the government said as it focuses on quelling rising social unrest ahead of a once-a-decade leadership change. (AFP/Getty Images)

Stage set for drone chess match in Asia-Pacific

China is pioneering the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in the region, but remains far behind the US and Israel.

SHENZHEN, China — China’s plans to deploy surveillance drones in the East China and South China seas hint at the future of warfare in the region, but are also a reminder of how far ahead leading drone manufacturing nations like the United States and Israel remain on aviation technology.

Experts say interest in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is surging throughout the Asia-Pacific region without a framework of controls curtailing their proliferation and use.

Add the Obama administration’s policy refocusing American attention on the region — the so-called “Asia Pivot” — along with US announcements of further deployments of advanced UAVs to the area, and a massive game of drone chess looks increasingly likely.

In September, China commissioned its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and announced plans to use drones to monitor disputed territories including the Senkaku Islands that have caused recent friction with Japan. China detailed further plans to develop drone bases in 11 coastal provinces to be operational by 2015.

China has been playing catch-up with drone technology leaders, having purchased some technology from Israel already and showing strong interest in increasing its own share of the global UAV market, currently estimated at $6.6 billion per year and climbing.

“Many of my colleagues are creating a China that is 10 feet tall, like many of us did in the Cold War.”
~Dennis Gormley, Ridgway Center for International Security Studies

Later this month the Zhuhai Air Show will be an important place to see what technology advancements Chinese companies have made as well as what countries might be interested in purchasing Chinese UAVs. Pakistan is known to have ordered drones from China, and countries such as Brunei and Malaysia in Southeast Asia have shown interest in China's drones.

Dennis Gormley, a senior research fellow at the Ridgway Center for International Security Studies, said that US defense and aviation industry logic is that if it doesn’t “satisfy the growing requirement for UAVs, other states will develop their own or turn to Israel or other developers.”

“Of greatest concern are the intentions of China,” said Gormley, author of the book “Missile Contagion,” published in 2010.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the list of countries who have developed or purchased drones already includes Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines, according to a report published by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) in July this year.

In June, a Chinese frigate was also photographed testing a helicopter UAV, said Wilson VornDick, a lieutenant commander in the US Navy Reserves and an analyst on China’s military for the Jamestown Foundation.

At the end of August, China’s State Oceanic Administration (SOA) announced plans to set up UAV patrols out of 11 airbases in coastal provinces for maritime surveillance. According to state media reports a pilot program last year ran UAVs out of Liaoning province to monitor an ocean area of around 380 square miles.

More recently, immediately following renewed conflict with Japan over the Senkakus, the SOA announced on Sep. 23 that it was deploying UAVs to monitor specifically monitor the disputed islands as well as territories in the South China Sea, which China claims almost in its entirety.

Reports also indicate that Japan is using drones to monitor the Senkakus, and the Philippines is reportedly looking to purchase more UAVs from the US for monitoring its own claims in the South China Sea.

While most experts say China is not yet ready to launch a UAV fleet to rival US dominance in this technology with the capabilities and ranges of such UAVs as Global Hawk or Predator, they say it is only a matter of time before China is ready to deploy a basket of armed and unarmed UAVs suited to its needs. 

"They are definitely showing some robust interest," VornDick told GlobalPost.

VornDick, who penned an article earlier this year for the Jamestown Foundation speculating that China could “leapfrog” its naval warfare development by outfitting its Liaoning carrier with UAVs instead of traditional manned war planes because of the difficulty of training pilots to land on carriers, said another great motivation for China to develop its own drones is their low cost.

"Traditional weapons systems take generations, and what is so unique about UAV development is that it leapfrogs that development," VornDick said.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/121102/china-drone-UAV-proliferation