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As Russians take to the streets for Dec. 24 protests, here are the leaders vying for power and change.
And with Moscow's Dec. 24 protests, the sense of strong-state stability built by Vladimir Putin over the past decade is beginning to crumble.
No one is ready to count Putin out yet, but his return to the presidency after March polls no longer looks like a sure thing. His once-stratospheric popularity rating plunged to just 51 percent this month. The party that undergirded his power for a decade, United Russia, is in disarray and deeply mired in charges of vote-rigging in the Dec. 4 parliamentary polls.
Some experts are beginning to warn that the system of "managed democracy" — which weeded out independent challengers, limiting choices to those acceptable to the Kremlin — could unravel explosively amid the unpredictable rough-and-tumble of the coming presidential election.
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That's just a hypothesis, but it's not so far-fetched. In the past century two mighty, autocratic Russian states have collapsed, dragging down their ruling classes and dominant ideology. They were replaced by fresh systems, brought in by new people who arrived in power, in some cases literally, from the streets.
Many experts have warned, with increasing urgency in recent years, that Putin was building a “lite” version of just such a top-heavy, corruption-ridden, muscle-bound Russian state, possessing strong security forces but lacking deep social roots and democratic legitimacy.
People are beginning to ask a previously unthinkable question: If Putin's regime should implode, where might the next wave of leaders come from? Who are they, and what are their agendas?
Like Czarist Russia and the Soviet Union, Putin's Russia has a strictly controlled political system, in which no one is allowed to build an independent political base and bid for leadership from inside the system.
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Still, Putin's legion of opponents are a diverse, determined and battle-hardened group. They include a blogger, a street agitator, a businesswoman-environmentalist, and ousted political leaders. Many are familiar with oppression, violence and prison. Some live within the system, but others are essentially dissidents, living in constant fear of the secret service. One was even preemptively arrested as the recent protests began.
Putin’s chosen opposition
Putin's "managed democracy" permits a range of tame opposition parties. They accept the Kremlin's rules of the game, in return for the ability to express a range of criticisms and run for parliament and presidency.
They include the Communist Party; the (misnamed) Liberal Democratic Party of ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky; the social democratic Yabloko party; and A Just Russia, a left-wing party that was, ironically, created by the Kremlin in 2006 in hopes that it would displace the Communists.
In any crisis, leaders from these parties might be well placed to seize the reins of power.
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"A lot depends on whether these so-called systemic-opposition parties can get ahead of the curve," said Nikolai Petrov, an expert with the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
"Their leaders are in a very difficult position. They are compromised by their association with the system for all these years, but now they certainly feel the hot breath of the crowd on their necks. They won some public trust in the elections, but they need to justify it. There is little sign so far that they will."
How to handle the current uprising is a strategically fraught decision for the opposition parties — given that they rely on the Kremlin’s acquiescence to operate freely and to occupy seats in the Duma.
The Communist Party has taken part in rallies to protest vote fraud, but its leaders have been notably absent. Some dynamic members of A Just Russia — such as Duma deputies Ilya Ponomaryov and Gennady Gudkov — have played a key role in organizing the protests and also in trying to assist the 1,000 or so people arrested by police during post-election anti-fraud demonstrations.
But they are hampered by their insistence that an honest recount of the votes from the Duma election is all that's required, and that their parties should be trusted to make the necessary reforms.
"If there were a proper recount, then United Russia would lose its majority," said A Just Russia deputy Ponomaryov. "Then an opposition-dominated Duma could change the election laws and call a new vote. ... The vast majority of people who came out to protest on Dec. 10 are not revolutionaries, they are just people who want freedom of choice. But if there were real freedom of choice in Russia, that would be quite revolutionary."
The range of permitted opposition forces also includes metals tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov, who recently declared that he will challenge Putin for the presidency. But Prokhorov is unlikely to appeal to the broad majority of Russians; they despise the "oligarchs" who made shady fortunes in the anything-goes 1990s. Prokhorov may not even be able to overcome middle-class suspicions that he could be a Kremlin stooge.
The real rebels
But pressing at the gates is a full spectrum of "non-systemic" opposition groups, including political parties that have been prohibited by the Putin regime, and some new people whose names were little known, even in Russia, until the protest movement propelled them into the public limelight.
Most of these unsanctioned opposition groups demand that the Dec. 4 elections be cancelled and completely reorganized under fair conditions for all.
Parnas: the banned liberal party
For the Moscow middle class — the biggest social group to take to the streets so far — the main pole of attraction could be Parnas, a banned liberal party. Its leaders include former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov and former independent Duma Deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov.
Russia's secret services appear to have dealt Nemtsov a backhanded compliment this week, for his central role in organizing the rallies, by releasing hacked recordings of his cell phone conversations to the internet tabloid Lifenews.ru, which is co-owned by Yury Kovalchuk, a billionaire and close Putin ally. The private conversations, in which Nemtsov disparaged several fellow protest organizers in sometimes obscene language, appear to have been an attempt to divide opposition leaders.
Nemtsov says he has apologized and patched up his relations with his colleagues, but some damage might have been done.
"There is no doubt the Kremlin was behind this absolutely illegal breach of my privacy," he told GlobalPost. "Everyone can see the methods these people use. My goal, more urgent than ever, is to separate corrupted Putin from power and organize free and fair elections.
Navalny: the blogger-cum-folk hero
There are other potential leaders, who may benefit from not having a background in organized politics. They include blogger-cum-folk-hero Alexei Navalny, whose attacks on official corruption and fraud have migrated from the internet to the streets in recent weeks.
He is the author of the phrase "party of rogues and thieves," which public opinion polls suggest is the most widely-recognized and popularly-approved description ever expressed about Putin's United Russia party.
Navalny, released last week after a 15-day prison term for participating in an unsanctioned post-election protest, poured fuel on growing speculation that he might run for president if he's allowed to. Taking aim at Putin personally, he told cheering supporters that "the party of rogues and thieves is putting forward its chief rogue and its top thief to run for the presidency. We must vote against him, struggle against him."
Another organizer with genuine street cred is Yevgenia Chirikova, a former businesswoman who led an environmental group in the grim Moscow industrial suburb of Khimki in opposition to plans endorsed by Putin to build a toll road through a local old growth forest.
In several years of struggling, she and virtually all of her small band of followers were repeatedly arrested. One leading supporter was murdered; another was permanently disabled in an as-of-yet unsolved street attacks by thugs.
The battle for Khimki Forest propelled Chirikova to public attention, and then to the center of the current rallies against alleged electoral fraud.
"I don't make a distinction between politics and public activism," said Chirikova, in the kind of remark that tends to irritate some of her more politically sophisticated opposition colleagues.
"For me, real politics isn't something you study, it's done in the fields and the streets. Now we see lots of people coming into activity for the first time, and they're organizing themselves. That's the great thing about it."