Will Thailand seize the Thaksin fortune?

Ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrives by plane in Phnom Penh Nov. 10, 2009. Thaksin who is wanted at home for a graft conviction, was arriving to take up a job offer from the government that set off a diplomatic row with Bangkok. The former telecoms billionaire is in self-imposed exile after being toppled by the military in 2006 and then later found guilty on a conflict of interest charge. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen made Thaksin an economic adviser to his government and offered him a home in his country. (Reuters)

BANGKOK, Thailand — Much of the mystique surrounding Thai fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra arises from his seemingly unstoppable wealth.

His supporters behold him as a business savant, a cop-turned-telecom entrepreneur who challenged lazy aristocrats by running Thailand like a savvy CEO.

To Thaksin’s enemies, he’s a con artist who used the premiership to legalize corruption, entrench his wealth and buy the love of his largely rural, poor support base.

But on Feb. 26, Thailand’s Supreme Court may finally clip Thaksin’s Samsonian locks. Judges will then decide the fate of his $2.3 billion fortune, which was frozen in the wake of his 2006 military ouster.

If the money is absorbed by the state, Thaksin’s die-hard supporters are expected to seek reprisal. And few imagine that Thaksin will get his money back.

Thaksin is accused of growing extremely rich by evading Thai law, dodging taxes and enriching himself through family proxies. Moreover, he’s fleeing a two-year prison sentence for corruption, bouncing between safe havens in the United Arab Emirates, Cambodia and elsewhere.

Thaksin fights back by guiding an anti-establishment street faction — known as the “red shirts” — that is intent on driving out the current government.

Red shirts, whose mostly peaceful rallies sometimes turn violent, are expected to seek some sort of revenge if their shot-caller’s fortune is seized. Leaders have even considered a rally at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport, echoing a 2008 airport seizure staged by anti-Thaksin protesters. (The red shirts promise that, unlike their rivals, they won’t disrupt air travel.)

“Everyone (in the red shirt camp) says there’s a 90 percent chance the assets will be seized,” said Sean Boonpracong, spokesman for the red shirts, a group formally called the National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship.

The faction’s leadership will encourage non-violence, Boonpracong said. “But if they seize the assets, well, there’s a lot of pro-Thaksin in our midst.They’ll go berserk,” he said. “We’ll try to point out peaceful methods, but it’s up to them to act productively.”

Thailand’s current premier, Abhisit Vejjajiva, is already galvanizing police and soldiers in anticipation of a backlash.

“We can’t rule out their attempts at violence,” Abhisit told foreign journalists last week. “But I’m confident the majority of Thai people are actually tired of this kind of fighting for the interest of one person or a few. They want to see the country move on.”

But Thaksin supporters counter that Thailand can’t move on until they destroy double standards that keep elites in power. As their torchbearer prepares to lose his wealth to corruption charges, red shirts have rallied against figures who they claim have amassed property through their own abuses of power.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/thailand/100119/thailand-frozen-fortunes