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Somalia News: Enough Project analyzes Somalia-Kenya conflict

An influential think tank puts out an expert analysis of the Kenyan invasion of Somalia.
Kenya somalia conflict report 2012 01 16Enlarge
A Kenyan Defence Force soldier is pictured in Ras Kamboni, southern Somalia on December 13, 2011. (Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images)

NAIROBI, Kenya — The Enough Project is a part of the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank in Washington. Enough is dedicated to combating genocide and crimes against humanity.

Enough's shrewd use of actual experts, as opposed to simply impassioned advocates, is paying off with what is an increasingly impressive catalogue of analytical reports.

More from GlobalPost: Enough Project praises US special representative to Congo

In "After the Kenyan Invasion," author Ken Menkhaus, a professor at Davidson College, looks at Kenya's recent invasion of Somalia and the dangers it poses for Kenya, Somalia and the region.

Related: Kenyan air strikes kill ’60 or more’ Somali militants

Here's an excerpt from the introduction which warns of the risks Kenya has taken by sending troops into Somalia:

Intervention strategies that plan the war but not the peace will fail. Indifference to or wishful thinking about the crafting of a post-intervention political order guarantees disorder, and can leave both the occupied country and the intervening power worse off than before.

Kenya risks this fate in southern Somalia, where its armed forces are currently engaged in an operation against the jihadi group al-Shabaab in the Jubbaland border region. Almost three months into the offensive, which has at times been bogged down in a combination of rainy season mud and political indecision, there is still little indication that Kenya or anyone else has a viable plan for who will govern this highly unstable and contested region if and when Shabaab is ousted. Unless this question is clearly and effectively addressed Kenya is not likely to get what it wants—a more stable and secure border area.

Instead, its offensive could produce destabilizing clan clashes over the seaport of Kismayo. Aggrieved clans and communities could turn to Shabaab, reinvigorating a jihadi group in crisis. And the consequences of this combination of developments are likely to spill over into Kenya, affecting both the troubled border area and the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.

The stakes are exceptionally high for Kenya, which has much to lose if this operation fails. 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/africa-emerges/somalia-kenya-invasion-enough-project

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