Troubled waters

Growing unease in the South China Sea between China and other countries that claim disputed water and land territories could lead to a war that would expand beyond the sea and Asia, an Australian think tank has warned.

China and Vietnam have agreed to hold talks over the South China Sea issue, which has stirred protests in Vietnam and calls elsewhere to change the name of the sea. Now, the Lowy Institute for International Policy says things could get much, much worse. In their report, "Crisis and Confidence: Major Powers and Maritime Security in Indo-Pacific Asia," the think tank spells out how a South China Sea conflict could bring in the United States and other world powers. Complex claims in the region and China's increasing assertiveness have created a tricky situation.

"While the chance that such incidents will lead to major military clashes should not be overstated, the drivers – in particular China’s frictions with the United States, Japan and India – are likely to persist and intensify. As the number and tempo of incidents increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict. An accumulation of incidents could also play into a wider deterioration of security relations among major powers," the authors wrote.