Lebanese weathervane turns, slightly, against Syria

As sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in west, the political positions of Walid Jumblatt, leader of Lebanon’s minority Druze, are a sure indicator of which way the winds of change in Lebanon are blowing.

Just a year ago, Jumblatt was Syria’s most vocal critic, a man who dared, long before others, to call for the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose father most likely ordered the assassination of Jumblatt’s dad during Lebanon’s civil war.

Then, last January, Jumblatt did a spectacular about face, siding with the Syrian and Iranian-backed Hezbollah against his former West-leaning allies.

Always concerned with protecting his mountain dwelling Druze minority, Jumblatt read the tea leaves and thought they pointed in favor of the Syria-Iran “resistance axis” after Hezbollah twice in three years brought down the Western-backed Lebanese government, once following an armed take-over of parts of Beirut and Jumblatt’s own ancestral mountain stronghold.

While his votes helped bring a Hezbollah-led coalition to power in Lebanon, Jumblatt began heaping praise on Assad as a wise leader and reformer, even traveling to Damascus to mend much burned bridges.

Now, it seems, the wily chieftain is again hedging his bets.

Jumblatt aimed some mild criticism at his newly made Syrian friends, saying Assad’s current security strategy needed to give way to dialogue that can lead to a multi-party political system, stressing that violence needed to cease.

But if Jumblatt blows with the wind, like most analysts on Syria, it appears the final direction the gale is taking remains unclear, requiring some carefully chosen words from the Machiavelli of Lebanese politics.

“There must be a new strategy based on dialogue considering it is the only way to find solutions to the issues at hand to build a resilient country,” Jumblatt said in his weekly statement to be published in today’s Al Anbaa newspaper.

“The reforms should lead the way to a multi-party system by reviewing the Constitution and possibly draft a new [one], just like President Assad said himself … speeding up the route of dialogue to develop a rescue plan for the next stage which would include all members of the opposition.”