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India: Industrial output up 8% in October, in sign of turnaround

Factory output for October nearly doubled expectations, but inflation also ticked higher.

India's industrial output rose 8.2 percent in October, beating expectations of just 4.5 percent forecast by a Reuters poll of analysts, the news agency reports.  

The first of several key indicators due out this week, the boost in manufacturing output provides a strong sign that India's slowing economy may be poised for a turnaround.

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India's growth to surpass China's by 2030: Report

A new US intelligence report says China's economy will be larger than America's in 20 years, but India's will be growing faster.
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US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks with Adi Godrej (R), President of Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) & Chairman of the Godrej Group during a breakfast round table meeting with Indian CEOs in Mumbai on October 10, 2012. (INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP/Getty Images)

China's economy will be larger than America's in 20 years, but India's will be growing faster, says a new US intelligence report issued on Monday.

“India’s rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China’s slows,” Reuters quoted the report, issued by the US government's National Intelligence Council, as saying. “In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China’s current economic growth rate – 8 to 10 percent – will probably be a distant memory by 2030.”

Asia as a whole will also overtake North America and Europe combined in global power by 2030, the report said, while the economies of Europe, Japan and Russia are likely to continue their “slow relative declines.”

Despite the economic power of China, the authors expect the US to retain its superpower status because it still is the only country able to pull together coalitions and mobilize efforts to deal with global challenges, according to Reuters.

“China isn’t going to replace the US on a global level,” Mathew Burrows, counselor to the National Intelligence Council, said at a media briefing. “Being the largest economic power is important … [but] it isn’t necessarily the largest economic power that always is going to be the superpower.”

Take both predictions with a grain of salt, or a handful, if you believe Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma, the author of “Breakout Nations.”

As Sharma writes in Monday's Economic Times:

History shows that only a third of all emerging nations are likely to grow fast in any decade, and are even less likely to continue growing for a second or third decade. The longer a boom lasts, the less likely it is to continue. The result is that, over time, emerging markets are not 'catching up' with the rich, as many think. Their average incomes are the same relative to rich-nation incomes in 1950. India's strong growth in the 2000s reduced the likelihood of a second good decade, and it is slowing.

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India: 5 key indicators for economy this week

Bank expects positive signs for India comeback.
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Indian stock dealers keep a watch on share prices at the Bangalore Stock Exchange (BgSE) on August 8, 2012. (Manjunath Kiran/AFP/Getty Images)

With five key indicators due out this week, a prominent global bank expects positive signs of a comeback for the Indian economy.

  1. Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of October to show 5 percent growth, after contracting last month, according to the Economic Times.
  2. It doesn't expect the third round of quantitative easing by the federal reserve, or QE III, (expected on Dec. 12) to fuel domestic inflation.
  3. The bank expects November inflation figures to have risen to 7.5 percent — but that this will represent a “peaking off” of the price rises that have plagued India for a year or more.
  4. The bank expects India's central bank to cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points on Dec. 18 to pull down lending rates to support growth.
  5. And It is hoping that the government will be able to push through the banking bill and other reforms, following its success with the move to allow foreign direct investment from retailers like Walmart.
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As terrorism victim, India ranks behind only Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan

Global Terrorism Index puts India fourth place among worst affected countries
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A sand sculpture commemorates the execution of terrorist Ajmal Kasab, captured following the November 26, 2008 attacks on Mumbai. (AFP/Getty Images)

Global incidents of terrorism, which spiked after September 11, 2001, have waned considerably since peaking in 2007, according to the new Global Terrorism Index. But it may come as a surprise that the worst affected country after Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan is peace-loving India.

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India slated to take No. 2 spot in manufacturing — following China

India to be world's second-most competitive country in manufacturing within five years, says Deloitte.
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A young Indian labourer carries a load of bricks as she works on a construction site in Allahabad on November 16, 2012. According to a new study, India will become the world's second-most competitive country in the brick-and-mortar manufacturing sector over the next five years. (AFP/Getty Images)

India is slated to become the world's second-most competitive destination for manufacturing operations, after China, within five years, according to a new study by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and the US Council on Competitiveness.

Brazil will likely occupy the third slot according to the study, reports India's Hindustan Times newspaper.

“India is rated this high mainly because of its huge talent pool, its strong domestic demand and and the incredible geographic position,” the paper quoted Deloitte global leader manufacturing Timothy P Hanley as saying.

Hanley added that the expertise India has in services can be replicated in manufacturing as well provided challenges like education and infrastructure development are addressed, the papers said.

India's manufacturing sector has made large strides over the past decade, despite continuing problems with electricity supply and transportation infrastructure, as well as strict labor laws. However, most of the growth has been driven by domestic consumption of items like automobiles, refrigerators and the like, in contrast to China.

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India: Manufacturing shows green shoots in November

India's manufacturing sector growth hit 5-month high in November
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Indian labourers carry wood sleepers to construct a temporary pontoon bridge over the River Ganges at Allahabad on November 27, 2012. (SANJAY KANOJIA/AFP/Getty Images)

India's manufacturing sector provided some good news for economy watchers, posting its highest growth in five months this November, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

The news comes amid concern about a slowdown in India's overall growth, following the release of data showing GDP growth of only 5.3 percent in the quarter ended September 30.

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India: Crunch time for economic reforms

With 13 days left in the parliamentary session and squabbling continuing over FDI in retail, India's prime minister is hoping to push through 6 more important economic reforms.
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(GlobalPost)

It's crunch time for economic reforms in India, as slowing growth and persistent corruption allegations threaten to make Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) unelectable in the upcoming 2014 polls.

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India: The world is fat, but are McDonald's and Frito-Lay to blame?

For the first time in history, more people are obese than hungry. But is the spread of western-style junk food really the culprit?
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(GlobalPost)

My colleague Patrick Winn'sreport on 7-Eleven's dominance in Southeast Asia has me thinking this morning.

As GlobalPost's compelling "The World Is Fat" series makes clear, for the first time in history more people are obese than hungry across the world.  But are western multinationals like 7-Eleven, McDonald's, PepsiCo and Frito-Lay really to blame?

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India: Black money out, white money in--India may be top recipient of remittances, says World Bank

Even as India's anti-corruption activists and opposition lawmakers rail about the allegedly vast sums of black money squirreled away in Swiss bank accounts, India looks set to top the world in remittances sent back home from abroad.
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(GlobalPost)

In India, black money goes out and white money comes in, suggests new findings from the World Bank.

Even as India's anti-corruption activists and opposition lawmakers rail about the allegedly vast sums of black money squirreled away in Swiss bank accounts, India looks set to top the world in remittances sent back home from abroad, according to the World Bank study.

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Just outside India's Camelot: Character assassination by gossip

An excerpt from Tavleen Singh's new book hammers Sonia Gandhi for being human, rakes up "foreign-born" charge with 40-year-old evidence
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(GlobalPost)

An excerpt from columnist Tavleen Singh's new book, Durbar, in this week's Open reads exactly like what it is: Character assassination by gossip.

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