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The big picture view of an ever-changing global economy.

The US economy and the future of growth: well this is depressing

A new paper by Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon warns that the US economy is in for a very rough ride. For decades.
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Will the US economy, the world's largest, shrink for decades? (Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images)

The United States has produced one of the most successful economic stories in human history.

We've had a lot of inherent advantages: abundant natural resources, favorable demographic trends, relative political stability supported by the protective benefit of two oceans, to name a few.

But from colonial times to the present, our happy economy has also been powered by three separate industrial revolutions: 1) the introduction of steam engines and railroads, 2) the inception and widespread use of electricity and the combustion engine, and 3) the invention of computers, the web and mobile communications.

As Northwestern economist Robert Gordon points out in a new paper, these three interlocking events gave rise to a widespread assumption that "economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever."

That's because each of these industrial revolutions produced a virtuous economic circle.

Each advance built upon the innovations of the previous ones, along the way boosting productivity and revving the American economy, which in turn made American consumers richer and more able to buy stuff.

Well, guess what?

Gordon writes that future growth in consumption per capita — the main engine of the consumer-based US economy — could fall below 0.5 percent a year for what he calls "an extended period of decades."

Yes, that would be a big deal. For some context, between 1860 and 2007 that annual growth rate was 1.9 percent.

What's driving this structural economic slowdown, according to Gordon?

He argues that six "headwinds" are buffeting the US economy, and that these factors were in place even before the Great Recession of 2008.

Count 'em: 1) changing and unfavorable demographics, 2) rising education costs and poor secondary school performance, 3) growing economic inequality, 4) increased competition due to globalization, 5) energy and environmental costs and challenges, and 6) high levels of consumer and government debt.

Taken together, these headwinds will slow growth dramatically into the foreseeable future.

Here's the money quote of Gordon's paper, which is titled "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds":

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Global business executives love Barack Obama?

Yes, according to a survey by the Financial Times and The Economist that says Obama would be better for the global economy than Mitt Romney.
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A supporter wants four more years as US President Barack Obama delivers remarks during a campaign event in Dubuque, Iowa on August 15, 2012. He's apparently not alone. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

Mitt Romney is a great businessman, right?

He loves free markets and hates regulation.

He also despises taxes.

He's got global experience, too, after leading the 2002 Winter Olympics to a successful outcome in Salt Lake City.

Oh, and he's rich.

So you might expect most business executives around the world would be in favor of a Romney presidency, particularly after the economic challenges Barack Obama has faced since moving into the White House in 2009.

But you'd be wrong.

That's the word today, anyway, from a survey conducted by the Financial Times and The Economist that asked 1,740 business leaders in a variety of industries about their 2012 presidential preferences.

Twice as many said an Obama victory would be better for the global economy.

Thirty-seven percent, meanwhile, thought it would make no difference who won the election.

Here's how the FT put it:

(The survey's) results run counter to general perceptions, at least in the US, where Mr Romney has gone out of his way to stress his support for business and his determination to reduce regulation.

The FT/Economist Global Business Barometer also pointed to general glumness about the immediate economic future.

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Europe's economy: From mediocre to worse (Infographic)

A new round of economic data shows that Europe's crisis isn't getting any better.
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel, pictured at the Christian Democrats' forum in November 2011. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Attention, German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

You still have a problem.

As much of Europe fritters away another August vacation, the economic world keeps spinning.

And unfortunately for the world's largest economic bloc, the news isn't getting better.

Overall, the euro zone economy contracted by 0.2 percent from the previous quarter.

As for Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece? You don't even want to know.

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Olympic Vermin: What to watch while NBC doesn't broadcast the opening ceremonies

(VIDEO) Why shouldn't squirrels, rats and pigeons have their say in the London Olympics?

Yes, Twitter is abuzz about NBC's decision to not broadcast the opening ceremonies of the London Olympics live on the web.

Guardian editor Matt Wells pretty well summed up Twitter's collective anger today over the decision:

"NBC showing complete contempt for its audience by not showing or streaming Olympics opening ceremony live."

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US drought: It's bad, but Stephen Colbert makes it funny

Citing higher cheese prices, Colbert states it plainly: "This s**t just got real."
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Corn grows in a field August 17, 2011 near Willow Springs, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/AFP/Getty Images)

There's not much to laugh about in the ongoing drought crisis now hitting much of the United States.

The dry and hot conditions — which rival those of the Dust Bowl era — are at their worst in nearly a half-century.

The US Department of Agriculture warned yesterday that the severe drought will lead to higher prices for pork, beef, milk and especially poultry.

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US economy: Looking at the bright side

Yes, the world's largest economy has a lot of problems. But is also has, well, a lot.
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The US economy: down but certainly not out. (Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty Images)

Covering the US economy can be breathless, tiring work.

What's the jobless report this week? And what about non-farm payroll jobs for July?

What's the latest number on retail sales? Did it beat expectations?

What's the Fed's Beige Book saying right now?

What's the latest quarterly GDP number, and was it revised from the previous quarter?

Quick โ€” what's the industrial production and capacity utilization of US factories over the past six months?

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The LIBOR scandal meets Jon Stewart

You know it's a crisis when the Daily Show digs in. But here's why the LIBOR mess really matters.
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The headquarters of Barclays Bank in London, England. (Oli Scarff/Getty Images)

The financial information website Investopedia defines the London Interbank Offered Rate — or LIBOR — like this:

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IMF cuts global growth forecast

Merde! The International Monetary Fund warns of more trouble ahead. Thanks, Europe.
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Here comes the darkness. Again. (Mario Tama/AFP/Getty Images)
When it comes to the global economy we're all connected. That's the underlying message from the International Monetary Fund today, which said ongoing trouble in Europe will lead to lower economic growth in emerging market stars like China, India and Brazil. And, yes, for the rest of the world, too.
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China economy: What's the big deal about 8 percent GDP?

Economic analysis meets numerology in the world's second largest economy.
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Decorative red lanterns are hung on trees at a temple to celebrate the Lunar New Year of the Dragon January 22, 2012 in Beijing, China. (Feng Li/Getty Images)
This is the sixth straight quarter that China's economy has slowed, and the country's GDP is now well-below 8 percent โ€” or the number that's ritualistically repeated by China-watchers as being necessary to keep employment up, and social protests down. Or is it? And what's the big deal about 8 percent GDP, anyway?
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Krugman interview: We need more US government spending (VIDEO)

Check out this fascinating, and yes timely, interview with Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal.
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A view of the US Capitol Dome on Capitol Hill July 7, 2011 in Washington, DC. (Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)

Paul Krugman has a lot to say about the global economy.

Since most of us don't have a Nobel Prize in economics, it's always useful to know what's cooking up there inside his head.

So it was a joy this morning to watch this great interview by Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal.

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