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The coming jobs disaster for Europe

The International Labour Organization warns 4.5 million more jobs could go if policies don't change.
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A protester kicks a tear gas canister in Athens on Feb. 10. Greek protesters threw stones and firebombs at riot police who responded with tear gas. (Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images)

Europe's political and economic crisis is an arcane matter.

Except, of course, if you're a European living through it — to say nothing of trying to find a job there.

The International Labour Organization has underscored that problem today.

In a new report blandly titled "Eurozone jobs crisis: trends and policy responses," the ILO warns that 4.5 million more jobs could be lost in Europe unless policies "change course in a concerted manner."

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Euro crisis: Another day, another flirtation with disaster

Rising yields, rising ire in the world's largest trading bloc. It must be Monday in Europe.
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Spanish matador Oliva Soto during a bullfight in the Maestranza Bullring in Sevilla on May 22, 2008. (Cristina Quicler/AFP/Getty Images)
For those with the stomach to watch it unfold, Europe's debt crisis has assumed a sickeningly familiar pattern. It goes like this: European leaders talk. The markets force government borrowing costs higher. European leaders talk again. Repeat.
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Macro chatter: 14 hours of meetings later, Europe's got a plan

Around the world in business: European leaders have a plan for the continents banks, and US consumers are making more money. They just aren't spending it.
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People walk outside an Alpha bank branch in Athens on April 19, 2012. Greek banks have been coming under increased pressure this week as consumers have been draining their accounts. (ARIS MESSINIS/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

European leaders spent 14 hours talking and now have a plan for helping out the continent's banks. 

They've agreed to use a eurozone bailout fund to recapitalize struggling banks and create a banking union aimed at stemming a vicious cycle of bank bailouts that drive up sovereign debt. 

The move is expected to lower borrowing costs for some of the eurozone's most indebted members. 

Want to know: 

Americans are making more money. They're just not spending it. 

Consumer spending in the US remained flat in May and April's gain wasn't as strong as initially reported, the Commerce Department's latest data show

This comes as personal incomes and saving inched upward. 

Just because: 

There's more bad news for BlackBerry. 

Research in Motion said it plans to cut 5,000 jobs and delay the release of its newest operating platform. 

Dull but important: 

Big changes could be coming to your credit card bills and home mortgages.

Bank of England Governor Mervy King is calling for an overhaul in the way in which LIBOR is calculated, the Wall Street Journal reported.

LIBOR underpins interest rates for just about everything, and Barclays has recently been fined for attempting to manipulate the key rate to help it boost trading profits. 

Strange but true: 

Brazil's richest man isn't exactly going brooke, but he has managed to lose half his fortune. He's also lost his title as Brazil's richest man. 

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Macro chatter: Japan shops, Brazil spends

Around the world in business: Japanese retail sales are up, and Brazil's got a big stimulus plan and been hit by Moody's banking downgrades.
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Customers enter the new flagship store of Jaspanese casual fashion giant Uniqlo. (YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP/Getty Images)

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Here’s one place in the world where consumers aren’t cutting back: Japan.

Retail sales in the world’s third-largest economy were stronger than expected in May. The need to rebuild after last year’s earthquake and a government program aimed at boosting car sales helped drive up the figure, Bloomberg said.

Retail sales in Japan are up about 3.6 percent from a year ago.

Want to know:

The tablet wars are about to get a little hotter.

Google announced it plans to release a tablet with a starting price of $199. The 7-inch android Nexus 7 has a 9-hour battery and weighs less than a pound.  

Dull but important: 

Brazil’s government has a $4.1 billion plan to stimulate its economy.

Brazil is planning to use the money to buy school buses, motorcycles, ambulances and backhoes in an effort to jumpstart growth in the country.

Brazil is hoping the world won’t lose confidence in its economy, but it doesn’t seem to be working for Moody’s.

Moody’s doesn’t seem to be buying it. The ratings agency has cut its ratings on 11 Brazilian banks.

Just because:
Rupert Murdoch could have a big break up on his hands.

Murdoch’s News Corp. plans to separate its entertainment and publishing units, the Wall Street Journal reported. The paper is owned by News Corp.

The move is worrisome to the publishing sector, which generates a fraction of the revenues of News Corp.’s entertainment businesses, a group that includes 20th Century Fox and Fox News Channel.

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Macro chatter: A little good news from the US and Italy

Around the world in business: US durable goods orders rise and so does Italian business optimism. Facebook, however, isn't doing as well.
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Workers of the CAM Museum (Casoria Contemporary Art Museum) place a German flag at the entrance of the museum in Casoria. Antonio Manfredi, director of the CAM in Naples, planned to burn three works of art a week in protest of budget cuts, he said on April 18, 2012. (ROBERTO SALOMONE/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

Demand for durable goods in the US bounced back in May. 

Orders for long-lasting items like toasters, refrigerators, cars and airplans were up 1.1 percent, according to the latest data from the US Commerce Department. 

While it is a positive, the US manufacturing sector isn't quite back with a bang, according to Reuters. It's just not quite falling apart.

Want to know: 

It's going to be a while until Facebook shares get back up to their IPO price. 

Analyst estimates suggested it could take Facebook a year to reach that $38 a share offering price, the Wall Street Journal said

Facebook shares closed at $33.10 yesterday. 

Dull but important: 

Barclays was fined $450 million by the US and UK for attempted LIBOR manipulation.

Barclays traders worked with colleagues to tailor LIBOR estimates from the bank to benefit the banks derivatives trading positions, Financial Times said, citing a settlement between the bank and a US regulatory agency. 

LIBOR, the London interbank offered rate, impacts the interest rates on pretty much everything. 

Just because: 

Silicon Valley is heading to London

The Silicon Valley Bank, which is said to back companies including Mozilla, the brains behind the Firefox browser, is opening an east London office aimed at profiting from its growing start up scene. 

London has the third most successful ecosystem for digital innovation, GlobalPost's Barry Neild notes. 

Strange but true: 

Italian businesses grew more confident in recent months even as the euro crisis dragged on and an increasing number of its neighbors sought bailouts from the EU and IMF. 

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Macro chatter: Sheryl Sandberg's big move

Around the world in business: More downgrades in Europe, and Sheryl Sandberg breaks the Facebook ceiling.
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Sheryl Sandberg is the first woman to be appointed to Facebook's seven-man board of directors. (Spencer Platt/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:

Greece has picked Yannis Stournaras to serve as its next finance minister. The 55-year-old economics professor replaces the country's previous finance minister, who hadn't yet been sworn in but has already left the position due to health problems. 

Stournaras was among those who helped negotiate Greece's entry into the euro zone, The Wall Street Journal noted

Want to know: 

Sheryl Sandberg has broken the Facebook ceiling.

The Facebook chief operating officer on Monday became the first woman to be appointed to company’s board.

Sandberg once worked for Larry Summers at the US Treasury, then worked for Google and now feels okay admitting that she leaves work at 5:30 every day to have dinner with her kids

Just because:
Heard at an investment conference in Chicago this week: Moody’s is always a day late and a euro short.

Happened in Spain Monday: Moody’s cut the ratings on 28 Spanish banks after Spain officially asked the EU for the for the $125 billion bailout it’s worked out.

Dull but important: 

The UK's May budget deficit came in larger than expected casting doubt on whether Britain's leaders will be able to meet deficit targets despite an economy mired in recession.

The UK's budget deficit came in at $28 billion, Bloomberg reported.  

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Macro Chatter: The BRICs wobbly currencies

Around the world in business: The EU economic brain trust has a lot to talk about at this week's meeting, and money is losing its value in emerging markets.
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A shopkeeper holds a 500 rupee note at a roadside food stall in Mumbai on May 7, 2012. (Indranil Mukherjee/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:
The EU brain trust is scheduled to meet this week, and the world is eagerly waiting to hear what they have to say. 

In recent days: Spain moved closer to picking up its bank bailout euros. Fitch cut Cyprus' credit rating.

Greece got a new coalition government in place that’s trying to push back its deadline to meet EU budget deficit targets. 

Chatter about a banking union is growing louder, and everyone from George Soros to Mario Monti has been speculating on how long the euro has to live.  

Want to know:
There’s big currency trouble in emerging markets, Bloomberg reported.

Emerging market currencies including Brazil’s real, Russia’s ruble and India’s rupee are quickly losing value as investors are turning a cold shoulder to what were until recently the world’s hottest markets.

Each of these countries has more than just currency troubles, Bloomberg noted.

Brazil’s consumer default rate is at its highest level in three years. Prices for Russian oil are at an 18-month low, India’s budget deficit is growing as policy continues to hamper growth prospects and even China’s economic boom is cooling.

Dull but important:
India may have a plan to catch its falling rupee.

India’s finance ministry and central bank are expected to announce efforts to allow companies to invest more in local bond markets to help prop up the currency, the Wall Street Journal reported

Just because:

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Macro chatter: Big bank downgrades and a rush to save the euro

Around the world in business: Moody's hits the world's largest banks with downgrades and time is running out to save the euro.
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As the euro zone crisis grinds on, an increasing number of European banks and countries are facing ratings hits. (Ralph Orlowski/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

Thursday brought the mother of all downgrades (at least for now). 

Moody's downgraded 15 of the world's largest banks in several of the world's most powerful countries. Among the casualties: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

The banks are into some really risky business, Moody's said. 

Want to know: 

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Moody's bank downgrade: It's a doozy

The credit ratings agency cuts the credit ratings of 15 big banks, including Citigroup and Bank of America.
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A large American flag draped across the front of the New York Stock Exchange August 5, 2011. (Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images)

As downgrades go, this one was a doozy.

Four months ago, Moody's warned banks that they were in trouble.

Today, the ratings agency followed through on that threat.

It downgraded 15 big banks in the UK, Canada, Europe and the US, including Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Yeah, it's a big deal.

Here's how Moody's explained the move, which came after the US markets closed, though not before the S&P 500 Index had dropped 2.2 percent on rumors that the bad news was coming:

“All of the banks affected by today’s actions have significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses inherent to capital-markets activities” Moody’s Global Banking Managing Director Greg Bauer said in a statement, printed in full here on Business Insider. "However, they also engage in other, often market leading business activities that are central to Moody’s assessment of their credit profiles. These activities can provide important ‘shock absorbers’ that mitigate the potential volatility of capital markets operations, but they also present unique risks and challenges."

So what's going on? And what's this likely to mean?

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Macro chatter: Operation twist and facepalm

Around the world in business: The Fed keeps twisting, Europe keeps flailing and an American billionaire buys a piece of paradise.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Capitol Hill July 21, 2010, in Washington, DC on July 21, 2010. (Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

The US Federal Reserve is betting on Operation Twist

The central bank said it would extend the quasi-stimulus program through which it swaps shorter-dated US Treasury securities for longer-dated ones until the end of the year. 

Since interest rates are already at record lows, the Fed was limited in its options and Twist was among its least controversial choices. But Twist has already been around awhile, and it's had a tough time saving the world. 

As Marketplace put it, "No matter how low our interest rates are, we can't save Greece, Spain and Cyprus with well-priced U.S. mortgage rates."

Want to know: 

Remember when GlobalPost told you Germany wasn't immune from the euro crisis? Well it isn't. 

The latest data from Germany shows German private sector output posted its steepest drop in three years. 

A key manufacturing index also fell to a nearly three-year low, and German business optimism is quickly fading.

Dull but important: 

Something concrete may yet emerge from this week's G20 meeting on the beach in Mexico: a euro zone effort to buy debt from troubled members. 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported to have agreed to allow money from the euro zone's bailout fund to be used to purchase bonds from Spain and Italy. The move is aimed at holding down borrowing for the struggling euro zone borrowers. 

Just because: 

Owning a piece of paradise: priceless. 

Billionaire Oracle CEO Larry Ellison has bought Lana'i, well most of it anyway.

It's not clear how much he had to pay to join the billionaire island owners' club, but it was likely a lot. Lana'i is the Hawaiian paradise where Bill Gates held his wedding, and Ellison's purchase includes two Four Seasons resorts and two championship golf courses. 

Strange but true: 

The G20's latest communique is about as exciting a read as its predecessors.

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