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Macro chatter: The Fed as the Seven Samurai on fed day

Around the world in business: All eyes are on the US today, where the Federal Reserve will tell the world wether it'll twist or stand.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., Oct. 4, 2011. (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

Later today, the US Federal Reserve board will reveal whether it's going to twist, stand or do something else to boost what's been a painfully slow recovery in the world's largest economy.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will take to live video to tell the world all about what the US monetary policy brain trust is thinking. But for now, the Financial Times is betting the Federal Reserve will do something to ease policy. 

That something could be Operation Twist, according to the latest Wall Street Journal Poll.

Economists surveyed by the paper think there's a 44 percent chance the Fed will embark on the plan which is one of its least controversial approaches to increasing the availability of credit 

Economists put the likelihood the Fed will swap shorter-dated securities for longer-dated ones at 44%.

Want to know: 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may hint at what the Fed is thinking in his press conference today, but he probably won't do it Seven Samurai style. Thankfully, Reuters' Mark Felsenthal already has

Meet, the Fed as the Seven Samurai

 

 

Dull but true: 

Something could actually come out of this week's G20 meeting on the beach in Los Cabos, Mexico: the framework for a European banking union. 

European leaders at the summit have vowed to begin better integrating their banking systems, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The move is aimed at stemming the continent's seemingly neverending debt crisis. 

Officials said the plan will include regional deposit guarantees and share the cost of recapitalizing failing banks among euro zone members. 

Just because: 

There is one place in the world where BlackBerry is beating its keyboardless, touch screen competitors: South Africa. 

Nearly half of all smartphones in South Africa are BlackBerrys, one market researcher told my colleague Erin Conway-Smith

South African teenagers have named Research in Motions Blackberry the coolest brand in the country for the second consecutive year. Apple's rockstar iPhone didn't make the list. 

Teens are fueling BlackBerry's dominance over the iPhone in South Africa, but they aren't just being motivated by cool. They're also thinking about price. 

A low-end BlackBerry is one of the cheapest smartphone options in South Africa and flat-rate data plans for the device can be had for about $7 a month.

Strange but true: 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. gets $14 billion a year in government subsidies, Bloomberg reported

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Macro chatter: Spain's bird and Germany's white flag

Around the world in business: Spanish bond yields flip off the world. Chinese home prices are still falling, and Germany may be ready to play a little nicer with struggling euro zone banks.
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Protesters with paper hats that read "enough" shout slogan at Sol Square camp on May 20, 2011 in Madrid, Spain. (David Ramos/Getty Images)

Need to know:
Spanish bond yields flipped off the world
and spiked to new record Tuesday.

Yields have been hovering above 7 percent despite a $125 billion plan to rescue the nation’s banks and there doesn’t seem to be any relief in sight. 

Want to know:
Chinese home prices are still falling
as developers are increasingly offering deals to lure buyers.

Home prices in China have been sliding for eight consecutive months and fell in a record 54 of 70 cities tracked by the government in May. 

Happening today:
The US Labor Department will release one of its most interesting data sets: a look at job openings across the country.

The report includes an update on the number of job seekers vying for each open position.  

Dull but important:
The G20 may be in relaxing Los Cabos but its stressing over Europe.

The G20 is scurrying to create a single bank regulator to police its financial institution and guarantee bank deposits.

Reuters said the approach aims to break the cycle of indebted governments bailout out broke financial institutions only to go further into debt themselves. The news agency said even Germany — which hasn’t wanted to chip in for bank rescues outside its border — seems to be warming to the plan. 

Just because:
You may not be making any more money, but the high-flying executive on the other side of town still is.

Corporate CEOs are continuing to get richer despite shareholder uprisings against lavish pay packages, The New York Times reported. Median pay for the 200 highest-earning American CEOs stood at $14.5 million in 2011 as CEO salaries grew by 5 percent.

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Spanish debt: The middle finger yield

You know it's bad for Europe's debt crisis when even bond yield charts are flipping you the bird.
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An Occupy Wall Street protester holds up a candle in the shape of a hand giving the middle finger on March 24, 2012 in New York City. (Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

Who says the universe doesn't have a sense of humor?

Or, at least, a grim, twisted, very dark and slightly profane sense of humor.

That's the case on European bond markets today, where there's very little left to do but laugh.

Here's the back story:

You might think that the election victory yesterday in Greece by the New Democracy party would at least give a little relief — even temporarily — to the serious debt problems across Europe.

With Greek voters narrowly supporting the pro-bailout party — you might reasonably conclude — the chances of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro zone would decrease.

An unruly  "Grexit," of course, would put further pressure on Spain, Italy and other debt-ridden countries across Europe.

It would also unnerve the global financial system, as banks just about everywhere hold European debt.

So, phew, the pro-bailout party wins and Greece and the EU get a little more time to figure this mess out.

But check out this chart on Spanish 10-year bonds today, which our friends at Business Insider have brilliantly dubbed "The Spanish 10-Year Yield Middle-Finger Formation":

Source: Bloomberg

As the chart above illustrates, the yield — or put another way the rate at which investors are willing to accept for betting money on the Spanish government right now — surged to a record 7.2850 percent before falling back later in the day.

The result: a giant middle finger, or as Business Insider writer Eric Platt put it:

"Perhaps this is the bond market's way of saying that the elections solved nothing."

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman also had some smart — if less visually appealing — things to say today about the Greek election.

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Meet the new face of far-right France

Marion Marechal-Le Pen: She's young, hot and very far right. She's also now a member of parliament.
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Marion Marechal-Le Pen, far-right Front National (FN) granddaughter of FN former President Jean-Marie Le Pen, takes part in a press conference on May 11, 2012. She won in the 3rd electoral district of Vaucluse. (BORIS HORVAT/AFP/Getty Images)

Greece wasn't the only important news in European elections Sunday.

France, too, held parliamentary elections that would either strengthen or weaken new President Francois Hollande's Socialist Party.

Hollande's party won, giving him the means to govern France, which is also home to Europe's second-largest economy.

The Socialists scored an absolute majority in the lower house of parliament, giving them a mandate to fight the unpopular economic austerity measures of the previous government.

But tucked beneath the headlines in Greece and France was this little factoid:

Marion Marechal-Le Pen also won a seat in the French parliament.

The 22-year-old law student has minimal political experience, though politics is the family business: she is the granddaughter of Jean Marie Le Pen, the founder of the far right National Front.

She's also the niece of National Front leader Marine Le Pen who, incidentally, lost her seat yesterday.

GlobalPost's Senior Correspondent for Europe Barry Neild profiled the youngest Le Pen on June 9.

Here's the money quote:

While Maréchal-Le Pen is clearly seen as a more electable, more acceptable face of the FN, she denies coming under pressure to stand. She told one interviewer: “In the family, no one is ever pushed, I came to politics spontaneously, there was no obligation. It has to happen naturally."

Well, naturally or not, it happened.

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Macro chatter: Could the Grexitement be over?

Around the world in business: Greeks stand by their bailout. The EU is running low on bailout funds, and one US state is bucking the world's employment trends.
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The leader of Greece's radical Syriza party, Alexis Tzipras, cheers at rally in Athens, as early results showed him taking an expected second place in the general election. No winner had been officially announced yet, but official projections have the pro-bailout New Democracy party set to gain most seats. (Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:
Greek voters went with a pro-bailout party in Sunday’s elections. It may end some of the Grexitement about a Grexit, but the Grelief could be short-lived.

An analyst quoted by the Wall Street Journal put it like this: 

“In reality nothing has been resolved by this election other than giving the Greek creditors, the Troika of the IMF, ECB and the European Commission, someone talk to and voice complaints about Greece not living up to its obligations.” 

The EU already has been talking about giving Greece a little longer to pay off its loans and meet its deficit targets, but it’s not clear that will be enough. Still fear of financial armageddon was enough to keep anti-bailout leaders out of power in a nation that’s been in a recession for five years. 

Want to know: 
Facebook managed to get out of one of its big lawsuits for $10 million

The company has agreed to pay a charity that accused it of violating users’ rights to use their own nams and photos $10 million. 

The suit was filed by five Facebook members and accused the social network of violating California law by using their names and likenesses to promote advertisers using its “Sponsored Stories” feature. 

Facebook Sponsored Stories are the ones where a friend’s name, photo and the advertiser they like are highlighted in another friend’s feed. 

Many more people may have been wishing they’d sued. Reuters said early court documents suggested the suit could win billions of dollars for privacy violations impacting nearly one in three Americans. 

Dull but important: 
Ruh-roh. The euro zone has funded so many bailouts that its bailout fund is now running low on cash. 

Europe’s big bailout fund now holds about $317 billion, which according to the Institute of International Finance means it could rescue a Cyprus but not a Spain. 

The group is pushing for the euro zone to adopt a banking union that would spread the cost of supporting the continents weakest banks, the Wall Street Journal said

Just because: 
Ratings downgrades aren't just for Europe.

India could find itself being downgraded within the next year or two, CNBC's Indian network reported. Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook for the country to negative meaning a ratings downgrade could be in the emerging market giant's future.

India's economy has been cooling off, and Fitch said the country's government hasn't been able to make it a more attractive place for investors. That's choking off the country's potential. 

Strange but true: 
Unemployment may be a problem pretty much everywhere else, but more people are working in Oklahoma than ever before

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Macro chatter: Another day, lots more downgrades for Europe

Around the world in business: A whole bunch of European banks get downgraded and so does France and a Texas-sized prison sentence for R. Allen Stanford.
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As the euro zone crisis grinds on, an increasing number of European banks and countries are facing ratings hits. (Ralph Orlowski/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

In less than 10 years China's middle class will outnumber the entire US population. 

At the moment, 247 million Chinese people, about 18 percent of the country's population, is considered middle class. That figure is expected to jump to 607 million by 2020, the Wall Street Journal reported

Middle class Chinese households spend between $10 and $100 a day on average. By 2020, their spending is expected to rival that of the US consumers. 

Want to know: 

Texan R. Allen Stanford has been sentenced to 110 years in prison for masterminding a $7 billion Ponzi scheme. Of course, he's taking a Bart Simpson-like approach to the situation and maintains he didn't do it. 

Stanford claims the government is responsible for triggering the losses suffered by his investors around the world. At his sentencing on Thursday he said he was the victim of government "Gestapo tactics," the New York Times said. A prosecutor put it differently, saying “From beginning to end, he treated all of his victims as roadkill.”

Those victims though won't get much relief from Stanford's sentencing. They have yet to recover any of the money they had invested in CDs at Stanford's Caribbean banks, and even if they do receive financial compensation it likely won't be much.

Investors stand to share an estimated $70 million maximum on claims of $5 billion in losses, the Houston Chronicle said. For many of those investors, any hope they had for their futures has faded. As the Chronicle's Loren Steffy said: 

They have grown used to people turning their backs as they have struggled during the past three years to recover from Stanford's crimes. Many face financial ruin, shattered retirements, or the loss of medical treatments they can no longer afford.

Dull but important: 

Another day, another downgrade in Europe (again).

Dutch banks are among the latest to taking a ratings hit as the euro zone crisis grinds on. Moody's Investors Services on Thursday downgraded five Dutch banking groups, saying a recession and falling real estate prices in the Netherlands pose a risk to their balance sheets.

Moody's also downgraded three French banking groups, one Belgian banking group and a bank in Luxemburg. 

Also Thursday, Egan-Jones downgraded France's credit rating, saying the worst of the euro crisis may be yet to come for the nation's banks. 

Just because: 

Coca-Cola can't wait to get back to Myanmar. 

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Macro Chatter: Every day does bring another downgrade to Europe

Around the world in business: Spain's latest credit rating hit, Greece's rising unemployment and a rap message on European austerity.
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The Spanish and European Union flags blow together in the wind in Madrid, Spain. (Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images)

Need to know:

If it seems like every day brings another downgrade in Europe, it's because it pretty much does.

Spain's credit rating slid another three notches Wednesday as Moody's cut it to just above junk status. That status, however, may not last long. Spain is already on the list of countries facing further downgrades by Moody's.

Spain's borrowing costs also have been rising, and a $125 billion bank rescue plan hasn't done much to calm the inSpainity.

Want to know: 

The Greek unemployment rate has risen to a fresh record. 

Nearly one in four Greeks were jobless in the first quarter, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Greek unemployment hit 22.6 percent, up nearly two percentage points from the previous quarter. 

More than half of all unemployed Greeks have been looking for work for more than a year. 

Dull but important: 

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told lawmakers he put a little too much faith in a key subordinates, leading to more than $2 billion in losses that have put the vocal critic of financial reform in the congressional hot seat.

Dimon said the company's since ousted chief investment officer had made so much money for the bank in the past that a trading strategy that "violated common sense" wasn't questioned.

He said risk-monitoring systems and JPM executives failed to correctly assess risks of a London derivatives portfolio. He also said that portion of JPMorgan's business wasn't scrutinized in the same way other lines of business are, Bloomberg reported.

Dimon, of course, is one of the loudest voices against the government increasing its scrutiny on the trading practices of big banks like his. 

Just because:

China's yuan is continuing to developing a larger presence outside of the country's borders. 

Hong Kong's central bank plans to begin providing yuan loans to city banks this week, Financial Times reported. The one-week loans will be offered in exchange for "high-quality" collateral like Chinese government securities. 

Strange but true: 

A rapper who shares a name with a well-known brand of emergency contraception has a whole lot to say about the state of the UK economy.

My colleague Barry Neild has the story of Ben Drew, a.k.a. Plan B, a Brit who is becoming the voice of austerity generation.

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Americans' plummeting wealth: Obama blames Bush

After grim news that US family wealth had declined to 1990 levels, the White House lays out figures blaming it on George W. Bush.
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Who robbed the American family of its wealth? (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)

Earlier this week, Americans had to swallow the kind of news that makes them queasy. Despite all their hard work, and despite the growing long-term productivity that is helping their employers earn more, US families are poorer than they were in 2007. Much poorer.

The Federal Reserve reported that between 2007 and 2010, the typical American family's income had dropped by 7.7 percent, and net worth plummeted by 38.8 percent. That meant that the median American family "had no more wealth than in the early 1990s, erasing almost two decades of accumulated prosperity," as the NY Times put it.

That's hardly the message that President Obama wanted to portray, just five months before the election.

And so the White House is fighting back. A blog post by two of the president's senior economic advisors spells out why President George W. Bush is really to blame.

It's called "More Work to be Done, But Household Wealth Up Every Year Under Obama."

Here's a sampling:

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Macro chatter: Another day, another downgrade in Europe

Around the world in business: Spain's banks get downgraded by Fitch as Greeks are withdrawing their euros to stock up on groceries.
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The protests turned violent early as protesters fight with riot police during massive clashes in front of the Greek parliament on Oct. 19, 2011. (Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know: 

Spain's pains are showing no signs of letting up. Fitch, which a day earlier cut the credit ratings for two major Spanish lenders, downgraded its outlook for another 18 Spanish banks. 

Meanwhile, yields on 10-year bonds in Spain have risen to their highest level since Spain adopted the euro.

Want to know: 

Greeks aren't standing by their banks ahead of a major election many fear could force Greece out of the euro zone. 

Greeks are withdrawing about $1 billion a day and are using at least some of that money to stock up on groceries, Reuters reported. Greeks aren't planning for the end of the world but are instead planning for the election of a leader who could bring brack the drachma. 

Dull but important: 

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is headed to Capitol Hill today where he's expected to take a beating for his company's $2 billion plus in recent trading losses

Dimon tried to get a jump on the situation by releasing his planned remarks ahead of time. In his remarks, Dimon tries to deflect criticism by admitting to making some big mistakes and telling Congress taxpayers haven't had to pay for his companies losses. 

"We will not make light of these losses, but they should be put into perspective. We will lose some of our shareholders' money - and for that we feel terrible - but no client, customer or taxpayer money was impacted in this incident," McClatchey quoted Dimon as saying in his remarks. 

The hearing should be particularly interesting since Dimon has been among the most vocal critics of regulators efforts to reign in trading practices at his bank and its peers. 

Just because: 

Italy's borrowing costs are surging, and the Wall Street Journal reports Prime Minister Mario Monti's honeymoon may be over. 

Monti is facing increasing pressure to turnaround the Italian economy but the austerity measures he's pushed aren't exactly popular with rank and file Italians. 

Monti has moved to increase taxes and revamp the country's pension system. Investors and world leaders have praised him but taxpayers and pensioners haven't been so approving. 

Strange but true: 

The economy isn't the only thing under siege in Greece. History is in trouble, too. 

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World Bank: Europe is ruining everything

2012 started with such hope. Then Europe got in the way. Here's what needs to happen next.
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What happens in Athens doesn't stay in Athens, sadly. (Matt Cardy/Getty Images)

Ah, Europe.

We love you for your rolling landscapes, your rich history, your 17 million varieties of wine and all that stinky cheese.

But, increasingly, we hate you for your lame economic policy, your maddening political intraction, your rising debt and your faltering currency.

Those sentiments were pretty well echoed by the World Bank today, which — in its lovably wonkish way — says the euro zone crisis is ruining just about everything in the global economy, particularly for developing countries.

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