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The big picture view of an ever-changing global economy.

Macro chatter: Germany isn’t invincible and neither is Google

Around the world in business: Germany’s economy is under pressure. American families are poorer, and Tokyo is more expensive than you thought.
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Home prices in 20 American cities rose in March from the previous month, adding to evidence the real estate market is slowly recovering. (Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:
Germany may be doing better than many of its European peers, but it’s not invincible.

The latest economic data from Europe’s oasis of stability suggests Germany may be on shaky ground, my colleage Siobhan Dowling reports.

Trade is slowing. Industrial orders are down. Fewer BMWs are rolling off of production lines and a closely watched business index slid in May for the first time in six months.

And the euro zone’s continued struggles don’t bode well for Germany.

Contagion, anyone? 

Want to know:
Apple is getting even friendlier with Facebook.

The mobile computing giant is making it easier for people to post photos, locations and links to Facebook from Apple devices.

The partnership is supposed to make for a stronger competitor to Google, Financial Times reported. But Apple’s already picking its own fight with Google.

Apple’s unveiled a homegrown maps app that’s discplacing Google Maps as the iPhone standard. Google Maps and the iPhone go way back to the phone’s launch in 2007. Unlike Google Maps, Apple Maps will include links to Yelp reviews. 

Dull but important:
If you feel poorer than you did a few years ago, it’s because you are.

The median net worth of American families slid nearly 40 percent between 2007 and 2010, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of consumer finances.

The big slip is due largely to falling incomes and home values. Declining incomes have hit the middle-class especially hard and have zapped workers optimism about their income potential, the Fed said.

Back when times were good, American families enjoyed a median net worth of $126,000. Now they’re worth about $77,000.

Just because:
Americans may not be buying as many homes as they once did, but foreigners are picking up some of the slack.

Asians, Canadians, Europeans and Latin Americans have embarked on a home buying spree as US house prices have continued to languish and several key currencies have strengthened against the dollar, the Wall Street Journal said.

International buyers accounted for nearly 9 percent of the dollars spent on residential real estate in the year ended in March, the paper said, citing data from the National Association of Realtors. That’s up 24 percent from a year earlier.

American real estate is especially popular with buyers from Canada, China, Mexico, India and the U.K. They’re shopping heavily in several states hardest hit by the housing downturn: Florida, California and Arizona.

As Elida Jacobsen Justo, who works at a Manhattan hotel with units for sale, told the Journal, “Money is always looking for a place to go." 

Strange but true:
Move over Luanda, Tokyo is now the world’s most expensive city for expats. The Japanese capital beat the last year’s winner Luanda on this year’s Mercer Worldwide Cost of Living Survey.

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China aviation: Up in the air

The Wall Street Journal asked James Fallows eight questions about China. You should read this.
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Picture of the China Southern Airlines first Airbus A380 taken in France on October 14, 2011. (PASCAL PAVANI/AFP/Getty Images)

There are few American writers who really understand the complexities of modern day China.

There are even fewer who can clearly and entertainingly articulate that knowledge to an American audience.

James Fallows fits both of those categories.

Luckily for us, the Wall Street Journal's China Real Time Report blog caught up with Fallows to discuss his new book "China Airborne."

Here's how the Journal frames the issue:

"China’s goal of building a world-class aviation industry has so far yielded few tangible results, but not for a lack of effort: The country is spending heavily on new aircraft development and aviation infrastructure, with plans for 70 new airports by 2015 and a commercial jet, the C919, meant to compete with best-sellers from Boeing and Airbus."

Fallows, of course, is a national correspondent for The Atlantic who spent much of the past several years living in and writing about China.

He's also an instrument-rated pilot and keen observer of the global aviation industry.

So "China Airborne" is a fascinating marriage of Fallows' knowledge of China and his aviation chops.

The book is also a sharp way to frame China's booming aviation industry and — to paraphrase the China Real Time Report — makes for an interesting proxy for understanding China's larger economic development.

Real Time China asked Fallows eight questions, ranging from the specifics of China's emerging aviation infrastructure to the surprising (for China, anyway) economic decentralization in this key industry.

The interview is a great read and includes one of the smartest observations you'll hear about China and Western attempts to cover the place:

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Macro chatter: Could this be the bailout before Spain's bailout?

Around the world in business: Spain's banks get a big bailout; Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett get a little love, and even death is becoming more interactive.
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Graffiti on a Deutsche Bank cash machine in Madrid. (Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images)

Need to know:
As the voracious blogger Joe Weisenthal has tweeted, "InSpain in the membrane."

The EU has agreed to lend Spain $125 billion to bail out its banks. The figure is likely more than Spain needs but is aimed at soothing investor jitters and heading off a bank run, Reuters said.

Some speculate a full-on bailout could be next for Spain, but the Spanish government continues to insist that its reforms are sufficient to keep Spain from going the way of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

The three countries already have received international bailouts and become locked into austerity deals. Citizens are increasingly fighting against bailout-imposed austerity, particularly in Greece, whose political and financial future remains undecided ahead of next week’s elections.

Want to know:
The New York Fed is standing by its man.

The chairman of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York told the Wall Street Journal he supports JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, a fellow board member critics say should relinquish his spot. Some say Dimon’s service on the board is a conflict of interest, particularly as government agencies are investigating a more than $2 billion trading loss at his bank.

Bankers are legally required to be included on the board of the New York Fed, which monitors the activities of several of the nation’s largest banks.

Regardless, Dimon won’t be sticking around too long. He’s in the last year of his second three-year term on the New York Fed’s board.

Dull but important:
China may have a little more wiggle room when it comes to economic policy.

Consumer prices in China rose at their slowest pace in two years in May, suggesting that inflation may be more stable than previously thought. Industrial production growth in the world’s second-largest economy also slowed on a year-over-year basis in May.

The data comes on the heels of China’s first interest rate cut in nearly four years and suggests the Chinese government may have more leeway to support its slowing economy than previously thought.

But there was at least one big bright spot in China in May: exports surged 15.3 percent.

Just because:
Here’s to hoping uncle Warren offers to pick up the tab.

One anonymous bidder has bought the chance to have lunch with billionaire investor Warren Buffett for $3.5 million. The figure is the most anyone has paid to eat with the Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO.

A foundation that provides services to the homeless in San Francisco has been auctioning off lunches with Buffett for the past 13 years. This year’s winner beat out 10 other bidders and may see it as an investment with a potentially high pay-off.

Hedge fund manager Ted Weschler, last year’s auction winner, was able to turn his lunch with Buffett into a job at Berkshire Hathaway.

Strange but true:
Tombstones have gone high-tech.

Across the nation, an increasing number of tombstones are using QR codes and geolocation services to make the grieving process more interactive, USA TODAY reported.

For $55 for five years, families can have aluminum tags with QR codes affixed to their loved one’s tombstones. The codes can link to any website the family chooses and the service.

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China cranks up the export machine

Facing a slowdown at home, China turns to its factory workers.
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A worker assembles small soccer balls at the production line of Ball Star Toys Co., Ltd. in Guangzhou on Sept. 4, 2007 in Guangzhou, China. (Feng Li/AFP/Getty Images)

If you're obsessed with the Chinese economy — and let's face it, if you're reading this blog post then you've got more than a passing interest in the topic — then Sunday was a particularly interesting day.

That's because the Chinese government announced that exports surged 15.3 percent in May from a year ago.

That's double what economists were expecting.

It's also the biggest month ever for Chinese exports.

The announcement comes as China's domestic economy continues to slow. The export boom could help preserve the jobs of millions of workers who toil in Chinese factories. 

Think of it as China using its secret weapon: factories that have been well-tooled to outcompete others around the world in terms of labor productivity and efficiency, even as Europe tanks and the US economy shows new signs of weakness.

The New York Times has a smart overview today of the situation, which highlights long-term investments in productivity measures and short-term currency movements as the catalyst for the export surge.

The US has been the main market for Chinese stuff. Exports to America rose 23 percent from a year ago.

They were up a paltry 3.2 percent to debt-ridden Europe.

As the Times reporter Keith Bradsher points out, the export surge is likely to play a role in the race for the White House:

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Macro chatter: Trouble in China, trouble in Europe, and trouble in the US

Around the world in business: The world’s economies are so troubled that even porn stars are having to get second jobs.
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Taxi cabs pass an adult video store in Times Square. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Need to know:
China’s quarter point interest rate cut has the world worried about just how bad May might have been for the Chinese economy.

The rate cut is the first in four years and has investors worried economic data due out of China this weekend could be uglier than anyone had been expecting, Reuters said.

Chinese growth has been slowing for six consecutive quarters, and China is on track for its slowest year of growth since 1999. 

Want to know:
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke must have a great poker face.

While his number 2 suggested on Wednesday that QE3 could be the way ahead for the US economy, during a hearing on Capitol Hill Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke failed to give a clear signal of what the central bank might do when it meets later this month.

Bernanke did however say he doesn’t endorse breaking up the nation’s largest banks even though the six largest US financial institutions hold assets equal to about two-thirds of US GDP. 

He also told Congress he sleeps “pretty well” since he does “lots during the day” and needs to be well-rested.

Dull but important:
Europe seems to be taking steps toward creating some of type of centralized banking union. The European Commission has proposed a framework for dealing with failing banks that calls for countries to share the costs of recapitalizing cross-border banks, the Economist said.

This comes as the Cyprus is expecting it may need $2 billion to rescue its second-largest bank and has Portugal is embarking on a $8.2 billion bailout of three of its largest banks.

Spain’s bank also are in need of what could be a $50 billion bailout, according to Reuters.

Spain already has made plans to bail out its fourth-largest bank but the European Union isn’t a fan of the plan. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Reuters Europe is ready to do whatever it has to keep the euro stable in the wake of the latest cuts to Spain’s credit rating.

Just because:
Fitch cut Spain’s credit rating to a BBB Thursday, and if the US doesn’t get its finances in order the ratings agency said a ratings cut could be in its future.

Fitch Ratings is planning to cut the credit rating of the world’s largest economy next year unless Washington can get its deficits under control, Reuters reported.

Fitch also plans to cut credit ratings for Cyprus, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal if Greece makes a Grexit. 

Strange but true:
Porn is having trouble, too.

Like the music, movies and journalism, porn has been under siege by a proliferation of free content that’s driving down wages and leaving profits limp, BBC reported.

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Estonian Rhapsody: Did Krugman cherry-pick data?

Master austerity-slayer Paul Krugman dismisses Estonia's economic progress. Here's the bigger picture, and the back story behind one of the most entertaining Twitter wars in euro zone history.
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The big picture: Despite a sharp drop, Estonia's economy is humming again. (GlobalPost)
Master austerity-slayer Paul Krugman dismisses Estonia's economic progress. Here's the bigger picture, and the back story behind one of the most entertaining Twitter wars in euro zone history.
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Macro chatter: Now it really might be time for QE next

Around the world in business: A top Fed official talks about doing more for the US economy, China cuts interest rates, and Europe gets a lot of bad and a piece of good news.
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Although Germany had enjoyed record-breaking exports in earlier in the year, the end of 2011 revealed a less optimistic reality. "It was a bad December through and through," Ulrike Rondorf ,an economist from Germany's second largest bank, Commerzbank, told AFP. Commerzbank was downgraded by Moody's on Wednesday. (DANIEL ROLAND/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:
The QE next talk is growing louder.

The Fed’s no. 2 official suggested it might be time for the US central bank to do more to support the world’s largest economy.

Janet Yellen, the Fed’s vice chair, suggested continued trouble in the housing sector, a lackluster job market and generally worsening financial conditions could force the Fed to act. 

“It may well be appropriate to insure against adverse shocks that could push the economy into territory where a self-reinforcing downward spiral of economic weakness would be difficult to arrest," she said at a speech in Boston.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to appear on Capitol Hill today.

Want to know:
For all the bad news there is about Europe’s economy these days, there may be at least one bright spot. Chinese investment in Europe tripled to $10 billion last year, according to a study cited by the Associated Press.

The Rhodium Group expects Chinese investments outside its borders could grow to $2 trillion by the end of the decade.

Of course, Europe will face stiff competition in courting China. The US and other governments also are clamoring for more investment yuan from China, which is battling its own economic slowdown. 

Chinese officials cut interest rates for the first time in four years to spur growth.

Dull but important:
It’s been yet another tough week for European banks, and this time its Germany that’s in trouble.

Moody’s has downgraded six German banks, including the country’s second-largest lender Commerzbank.It also cut ratings on three Austrian banks.

Moody’s is worried about what the ongoing euro crisis could do to the banks’ financial positions. 

Just because:
AIG CEO Robert Benmosche may think Europeans should work longer before retiring, but France doesn’t agree.

French President Francois Hollande is planning to lower the retirement age to 60 for some workers, which could make things tougher for the French economy.

French people, though, are probably pretty happy. They protested when former French President Nicolas Sarkozy increased the retirement age from 60 to 62 in 2010.

Strange but true:
Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones aren’t the only Men in Black.

Apparently, international financial officials also wear black when they parachute in to push budget trimming at bailed out countries.

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Joseph Stiglitz: Romney economic plan would "significantly" up the odds of recession

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joesph Stiglitz has some harsh words about Mitt Romney's brand of economics.
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Would this guy wreck the US economy? (Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Mitt Romney shouldn't be expecting any checks in the mail from Joseph Stiglitz.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist — formerly chairman of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers — has just destroyed Mitt's economic plan.

In a wide-ranging interview today with Bloomberg, Stiglitz said a Romney presidency would be very bad news for the world's largest economy.

Why?

Romney's economic vision would mean less government spending, which in the language of Europe is currently pronounced "austerity."

Here's the rationale:

Less spending by government is a dangerous proposition when consumers and businesses — the main drivers of economic growth in the US — are unable or unwilling to do it themselves.

The austerity approach is also what happened ahead of the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression, the noted economist drearily pointed out.

But Stiglitz didn't stop there:

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Macro chatter: Could QE3 be on the way?

Around the world in business: ECB leaves interest rates unchanged, the US Fed thinks QE3, and Elmo won't get to hang out with his Pakistani friends much longer.
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The Paycheck Fairness Act which would have made it illegal for companies to retaliate against employees who asked about their colleagues' salaries failed in a Senate vote on June 5, 2012. President Obama and Senate Democrats were strongly supporting the bill. (STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:

The European Central Bank kept a key interest rate unchanged today, but noted that growth in the euro area remains weak. 

The ECB's key interest rate is currently at 1 percent, and some economists were expecting it would cut rates to spur growth in the struggling euro zone. 

Want to know:

Women across America are not happy, this one included. 

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India economy: From bad to worse

As a former high-flying economy stumbles, the economic pain spreads.
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Indian women work at a construction project in New Delhi on Feb. 1, 2010. (Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images)

Things are only getting worse for India's sputtering economy.

GlobalPost's superb Senior Correspondent in India Jason Overdorf has been all over this story in his excellent On India blog.

Today, he filed this great report that examines the human impact of the ongoing problems in the formerly high-flying Indian economy.

Jason introduces us to several worried actors in the current economic drama now unfolding in Delhi:

“There's no more cutting back for me,” says Ram Samujh, a soft-spoken, gray-haired man who carefully takes out a pair of rimless reading glasses. “I'm already down to only the absolute necessities. I'm a daily worker,” said Samujh, whose skills give him a leg up on most Indian laborers. “One day I might get three jobs. But then I might go a week without any.”

But as Jason also reports, it's not just India's poor who are being hit.

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