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Macro chatter: G7 worries but not about Estonia

Around the world in business: G7 is extra worried about Europe (again), and Ikea isn't translating so well in Thailand.
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A Estonian woman gives change to a customer in Euro in a supermarket in Tallinn on January 1, 2011. Estonia has become an oasis in the euro zone and is now the only euro zone country running a budget surplus. (Raigo Pajula /AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:
The euro just can’t seem to catch a break this week. First George Soros gave it about three months to live, and now Standard & Poor’s is saying there’s a pretty good chance Greece will have to make a Grexit.

S&P is placing the odds of a Grexit in the coming months at one in three. S&P expects Greece leaving the euro zone could lead it to default on its debt.

Greek voters are set to have their say later this month. Greece is over the budget cuts the euro zone is demanding of it, and the euro zone has said it won’t budge. 

Want to know:
Here’s one reason you might not be able to retire as early as you’d hoped: Bankrate.com said the $1 million benchmark most people have had in mind as the ultimate retirement nest egg should really be about $3 million.

In the past, people were able to count on stock market returns of 12 percent to 15 percent a year, but markets in recent years have shaken that belief. Inflation also could begin to rear its ugly head at anytime, Bankrate said.

Here’s to hoping you can build that bigger nest egg before you turn 80.

Dull but important:
The G7 has scheduled an emergency meeting today to discuss the ongoing euro zone debt crisis.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the US, Canada, Japan, UK, Germany and France will hold a conference call in which they’re expected to increase the pressure on Europe, Reuters said. In G7 speak, conference call means there's a big problem brewing. 

Europe and much of the rest of the world is increasingly worried about Spain, which is mired in a banking crisis and asking for help, and Greece, which may have to leave the euro zone if it can’t cut its budget.

Just because:
Estonia has made a comeback
worthy of any sports metaphor you can think of.

The country joined the currency union 16 months ago and is now the only euro zone country running a budget surplus. It also is carrying less debt than Germany and (obviously) Greece.

Estonia’s economy grew 7.6 percent last year despite being one of the countries hardest hit by the global financial crisis just a few years ago. The Estonian economy shrank more between 2008 and 2009 than Greece has in the past five years. 

Strange but true:
The word Redalen may mean bed in Ikea speak, but in Thailand it’s more like getting to third base. And that's not a sports metaphor.

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Macro chatter: Using fried chicken to beat McDonald's in India

Around the world in business: Cyprus is on the brink. One millionaire CEO thinks you may have to work until you're 80, and Yum brands wants to export its Chinese fried chicken success to India.
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A woman eats a chicken leg at a Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) outlet in Beijing. (Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:
Another one could be close to biting the dust in Europe.

Cyprus is getting closer to becoming the next euro-zone country to tap a European bailout fund, the Wall Street Journal said.

The idyllic vacation island in the Mediterranean could be forced to ask for a financial rescue as early as this month as it works to stave off the spread of Greece’s financial crisis and its worsening credit reputation, the paper said.

Cyprus’ already is forced to contend with paying double-digit yields for what two major ratings agencies already classify as junk.

Want to know:
American International Group CEO Robert Benmosche won’t have to work until he’s 80, but he thinks you might have to.

In an interview with Bloomberg from his villa in the Croatian seaside resort town Dubrovnik, the AIG CEO said Europe’s debt crisis demonstrates that people aren’t working long enough to make their pensions and medical services affordable to their governments.

People around the world could need to work until they’re 70 or 80, he told Bloomberg.

Benmosche is 68, but since he earned more than $10 million in 2011 alone, he can probably retire whenever he wants. 

Dull but important:
Billionaire investor George Soros is giving the euro zone three months to figure out how to keep the euro alive.

He describes the euro zone as a political bubble on the verge of popping. Speaking at the Festival of Economics in Italy, a country that's of course struggling with its own economics, Soros said he expects that market demands of European governments will exceed their ability to pay in three months.

The euro as you know has been on the verge of collapsing for a while now.

Just because:
Yum! Brands, the corporation behind KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell wants to do in India what it has done in China.

The company wants to give McDonald’s a little more run for its rupee and is trying to figure out how to copy its Chinese dominance in India, Financial Times reported. China is one of the few countries in the world where Yum stores outnumber McDonald’s locations. Yum has around 4,000 KFC and Pizza Huts in China, where McDonald's has only about 1,400 golden arches. 

By 2015, Yum expects Indians will be spending more than $1 billion a year on KFC fried chicken.


Strange but true:
The Securities and Exchange Commission may be a more dangerous place to work than you think, at least according to the SEC’s lead internal investigator.

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Macro chatter: A sad US jobs report and a slowdown in India

Around the world in business: India's economy slows down, US Treasury yields play limbo, and Bruce Springsteen rails on bankers in Berlin.
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Shoppers at the Express Avenue Mall in the southern Indian city Chennai. (Meena Thiruvengadam/GlobalPost)

Need to know:
You know things aren't good when the latest US jobs report starts getting called the payroll report of doom

The US added 69,000 jobs in May. The number is the weakest in a year, and even its silver lining — that more people are jumping back into the workforce — isn't all that encouraging. 

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Steve Jobs, the movie: Aaron Sorkin dishes

So what's it like to write a movie about the man, the legend, the Jobs?
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Writer Aaron Sorkin with "The Social Network" actor Justin Timberlake at the 83rd Annual Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, Calif., on February 27, 2011. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

If there's one certainty on planet earth in 2012, it's that many, many people are obsessed with a man named Steve Jobs.

You may have heard of him.

He was the founder of Apple Computer who went on to reinvent the company into a digital powerhouse, along the way revolutionizing personal computing, tablet computing, music, mobile phones, animated movies, marketing, digital publishing and various other cool things that most of us can't now live without.

You may have also heard there's a Hollywood movie in the works about this fascinating, complicated and very problematic man.

As part of that project, famed screenwriter Aaron Sorkin is in the early stages of whittling down Walter Isaacson's best-selling tome "Steve Jobs."

Apple fans — and plenty of others interested in the intersection of business, technology, art and society that Jobs personified — are of course eagerly awaiting the upcoming film on his life.

So Sorkin — who penned A Few Good Men, Moneyball, The Social Network, The West Wing, and many other blockbusters — has given the Apple masses what they crave: details, details, details.

Here are some of the juiciest bits, according to Apple Insider, not to mention the 50,000 other stories about this that are now whirring through the Jobs-hungry web:

"One of the hesitations I had was that this was a little like writing about The Beatles,” Sorkin said. “There are so many people out there that know him and revere him; I saw a minefield of disappointment. I hope people don't say 'You really missed the big thing.' But that's bound to happen. All I can say at this early stage is that you should think of this as a painting, not a photograph.”

So forget the "cradle-to-grave" approach that worked so well for Isaacson, folks.

What will the movie be about, then?

"I'm probably going to instead identify the point of friction that appeals to me and write about that." Sorkin also said Jobs was "an extremely complicated guy, that I know for sure."

Sorkin was particularly insightful on the genius of Jobs:

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Macro chatter: Mark Zuckerberg falls off richest billionaires list

Around the world in business: Waiting for a US jobs report, Dunkin Donuts in India and eight countries that are doing better than Greece but won’t be allowed into the euro zone.
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A man enters a Dunkin' Donuts store in New York. (Ramin Talaie/AFP/Getty Images)

Need to know:

It’s a big day for economic news in the US ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated monthly jobs report, and the previews aren't looking good.

A report out this morning said US companies added 133,000 jobs in May. Meanwhile a separate report from the US Labor Department showed new claims for unemployment benefits hit a five-week high

The US economy also didn't grow as quickly as the government had initially thought in the first quarter. The Commerce Department reported US GDP expanded by just 1.9 percent in the first quarter instead of the 2.2 percent it had initially reported. 

Want to know:

India’s economy may be slowing down, but Dunkin Donuts is just getting started on the subcontinent.

Dunkin Donuts is planning to open 100 new stores in India over the next five years. Dunkin Donuts began opening stores in India this month and has already seen sales outpace its expectations.

The company now serves India’s population of more than a billion people with just three stores. 

Dull but important:

How’s this for irony? The European Central Bank said eight countries in line to join the euro zone will have to wait because their economies aren’t quite ready yet.

Of course, some of these countries are doing better than a few current euro zone members.

Still, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden were each lacking in some way, the ECB said.

Each of the countries managed to get in under the ECB’s 60 percent debt-to-GDP cap, something Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal weren’t able to do last year. Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio in 2011 came in at nearly three times the ECB limit. 

Just because:

Mark Zuckerberg has been on quite the rollercoaster ride this month, and it’s not over yet. There was the pre-IPO, the IPO, a surprise wedding, a disclosure scandal and a trading snafu on IPO day. Now Zuck’s wallet is getting smaller.

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Euro crisis: Can Germany change course?

Still don't understand the worsening euro crisis? Just turn to the Wolf.
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Can Angela Merkel save Europe? Will she? (Sean Gallup /Getty Images)

The euro crisis is, understandably, perplexing to most Americans.

Its subject matter is arcane and complex.

Its main action is playing out in the darkened halls of Brussels and Frankfurt and on the mysterious balance sheets of banks across Europe.

It is producing a variety of severe economic, human and political costs throughout the world's largest trading bloc.

And it practically requires a spreadsheet to keep up with all the pieces of the worsening drama, from analyzing the personalities that make up the various coalition partners in Greece's shattered government, to tabulating minute-by-minute yields on Italian and Spanish debt, to reading the shifting political winds in Paris, Dublin and beyond, to — most critically — divining the motivations and maybe even the psychology of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the queen of austerity who holds Europe's future in her hands.

For help with this last point in particular, you should immediately turn to Martin Wolf, the Financial Times columnist and heavyweight champion of the world when it comes to making sense of the euro zone mess.

In it, Wolf offers a brainy analysis that gets to the heart of this very pressing matter: what, exactly, does Germany want?

Here's how he sums up the stern mood in Berlin, and I must warn you, it is not an optimistic outlook:

"This is how I understand the views of the German government and monetary authorities: no eurozone bonds; no increase in funds available to the European Stability Mechanism (currently €500bn); no common backing for the banking system; no deviation from fiscal austerity, including in Germany itself; no monetary financing of governments; no relaxation of eurozone monetary policy; and no powerful credit boom in Germany. The creditor country, in whose hands power in a crisis lies, is saying “nein” at least seven times."

There are two ways to look at this, Wolf argues:

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Macro chatter: Facebook losses equal a Morgan Stanley

Around the world: How big are Facebook's losses? About the size of the investment bank that took it public.
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A saleswoman waits for the customers at a luxury Gucci fashion boutique in Beijing on September 5, 2010. China has vowed to make it easier to import goods into its huge market as Beijing seeks to address controversial trade surpluses with its trading partners, a report said on September 6. (LIU Jin/AFP/Getty Images)
Around the world: Facebook's losses so far are equal to one Morgan Stanley. Spain's budget cuts aren't enough, and a 20-year-old tests AOL's search capabilities by squatting at its offices undetected for two months.
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Consumer confidence in the US economy: Cold or hot?

One of the most important economic indicators in the US is down. Or is it up?
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Consumer confidence in the US economy is cold. Or is it hot? Maybe it's both? This Japanese Macaque monkey probably feels the same way right about now. (Koichi Kamoshida/Getty Images)

When you come right down to it, confidence is the whole deal in economics.

That's because consumers need it to reach into their wallets, and spending makes up about two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States.

But businesses big and small also need confidence to hire people, buy capital goods and other stuff, and make investments in the future.

And all kinds of investors — from US Treasury note buyers, to Greek debt holders, to those looking to own shares in Facebook or any other company — need it, too.

In short, confidence matters.

A lot.

So how's consumer confidence these days in the world's largest economy?

Terrible.

Or great.

It depends on which report — and which group of two-handed economists — you want to believe.

Today the Conference Board said consumer confidence this month plunged to its lowest level since January.

Here's how Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, put it in a statement:

"Consumer Confidence fell in May, following a slight decline in April. Consumers were less positive about current business and labor market conditions, and they were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. However, consumers were more upbeat about their income prospects, which should help sustain spending. Taken together, the retreat in the Present Situation Index and softening in consumer expectations suggest that the pace of economic growth in the months ahead may moderate."

Now try this one on for size.

Just four days ago, the Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers rose to its highest point since 2007 — before the Great Recession began.

That consumer sentiment index, by the way, has risen for nine straight months.

Here's how Richard Curin, the Surveys of Consumers chief economist, put it in a statement:

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Macro chatter: Greek recession killing Athens sex business

Around the world: Greek banks get another chance at getting in good with the ECB, but it may be too late to save the Athens' sex shops.
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Even strippers say they're having a tough time making ends meet in Greece. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Need to know:
As the US barbecued and relaxed on beaches and boats across the country Monday, Greece was busy setting up some of its largest banks with an 18 billion euro lifeline.

The funds provided to the four banks will allow them to begin borrowing from the European Central Bank again. The ECB, which has become a last-resort lender for many Greek banks, had cut them off.

The banks were dangerously low on capital, a feeling likely somewhat familiar to Greece itself. Greece is running low on funds and may not be able to cover its bills starting next month.

Want to know:
Even the sex business is suffering in Greece.

Athens alone used to be home to about 400 sex shops, but now only 100 remain, Reuters reported. Strippers are suffering, too, as customers increasingly choose to keep what little cash they have in their pockets.

A value-added tax of 23 percent on certain sexual products isn’t helping, Reuters said.

Dull but important:
China and Japan no longer need a middle-man to trade currencies.

The world’s second and third largest economies are scheduled to begin directly trading yen for yuan June 1, the Wall Street Journal said.

The move should help business in Japan and China save money, but it will do so at the expense of the US dollar. It is the latest in a series of actions China has been taking to reduce its reliance on the US dollar for international transactions and could threaten the dollar’s long reign as the world’s reserve currency.

Just because:
Spain is, as Kenny Loggins might say, on the highway to the danger zone.

Spanish borrowing costs were creeping toward fresh records Monday. Investors are becoming increasingly worried about Spain’s ability to deal with troubles in its banking sector.

Spain has been forced to provide a $24 billion bailout to one of its largest banks, and some fear Spain could have to cough up even more cash to keep its banks afloat.

Strange but true:
A memo handwritten by a teenaged Steve Jobs is up for auction.

Jobs wrote the four-page memo in 1974 when he was 19-years-old and working nights at Atari. In it, he detailed his recommendations for improving Atari’s World Cup soccer arcade game and shared a Buddhist mantra.

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Macro chatter: Obama yuan rap video still says it all

Around the world in business: Spain ponies up a lot of euros for Bankia. Greeks don't want to be told to pay their taxes, and an animated rap video is still the best explanation of why the US and China can't stop arguing abou the yuan.
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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. in Huaibei, Anhui Province on April 18, 2011. (ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images)

Need to know:
While the US is off for Memorial Day, Spain is bailing out its third-largest bank.

Spain plans to provide Bankia with $24 billion in what would be the largest bank bailout in Spanish history. The figure is twice as much as Spain has spent addressing banking weaknesses triggered by the collapse of a Spanish housing bubble.

The bailout is bigger than what had been expected.

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