Shady deals behind the scenes in Kabul

For weeks journalists like me have been sitting like jittery hens on a particularly fragile egg, waiting to see when, or if, a winner will be declared in Afghanistan's tragicomic presidential election.

The results have been expected “within days” for the better part of a month. With nothing concrete to report, we swarm the various election commissions, swap rumors and spin increasingly desperate stories about the next steps in this bizarre epic.

On Friday, I reached my limit. It was bad enough that the gym at the Serena Hotel, my solace and refuge, was overflowing with election workers and various hangers-on to the delegations in town.

“Just go home, already,” was my uncharitable inner monologue, as I was waiting for a reportedly brilliant but at the moment extremely annoying U.N. elections guru to vacate my favorite cross-trainer.

But just as I settled for the reclining bike, I received a text message from an election insider. The complaints commission, which was investigating allegations of massive fraud, had made its ruling: incumbent, Hamid Karzai, did not legitimately get more than 50 percent of the vote, and the elections would go to a second round.

However, the ineptly named “independent” election commission, most of whose ruling members were appointed by Karzai, was refusing to accept the findings, and was frantically looking for some justification for its intransigence.

“So much for the process,” I thought sourly. The message did wonders for my workout, however. I was so furious that I pedaled away for an hour.

Not that any of the fuss was made public. Instead, diplomats from around the world very quietly jumped into high gear, trying to pressure or cajole the major players into a more reasonable frame of mind.

Karzai had to be convinced that he could not simply wish himself into an alternate universe. The fraud was too blatant, and too extensive, to be ignored.

His rival, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, was being encouraged to set his sights a bit lower. According to those privy to the talks, Abdullah was not opposed to a power-sharing arrangement — but his demands made it highly unlikely a deal could be struck. He was insisting on 10 ministries out of 24, and the Karzai team balked.

Just to keep things interesting, former U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad sailed into the mix. Media speculation was divided on what exactly he was supposed to be doing – brokering a deal or lining up a job for himself.

Many people, including my Deep Throat election commission source, thought it was the latter. Khalilzad, who was born in Afghanistan but made his career in the United States, had been angling for a role in his native land for quite some time. As Washington’s ambassador from 2003 to 2005, he was widely thought to be running the country, and was dubbed “the viceroy,” a title that did not seem to displease him.

Now he seemed to want to reprise his former role — this time with the title of “chief executive officer” — a curious moniker for the de facto head of a country.

But plans had been bruited about for months for a “National Executive Council”— a group of experts who would control much of the government, leaving Karzai in place as a figurehead, and not much more. The CEO would head the NEC, and edge the president away from the levers of state.

Meanwhile, erstwhile finance minister and disastrously unsuccessful presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai was suggesting to a Washington think tank that an interim government might be necessary — just roll the calendar back eight years and begin a new Bonn process. His name, not coincidentally, was mentioned as a possible head for the new, and highly irregular, body. Ashraf Ghani is well thought of in U.S. corridors of power. But at home he is not exactly popular, as witnessed by his final vote tally of less than 3 percent.

As the Russians say, it would all be so funny if it were not so sad.

There is little doubt how this book will end — with Karzai enthroned for another five years. The only question surrounds the genre. Will this tale ultimately be classified as a tragedy or a farce?

http://www.globalpost.com/notebook/afghanistan/091018/shady-deals-behind-the-scenes-kabul