Brazil enters recession on an up note

The long-awaited results are in, and it’s finally official: Brazil is in recession. GDP fell 0.8 percent in in the first quarter of 2009, after diving 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 (both compared with the corresponding quarter of the previous year). That’s actually not so bad — and in fact is far better than most economists thought would happen. Many had predicted a steep drop, followed by a slow recovery starting later in the year; now it looks like the recovery is coming sooner than expected.

“Actually Not So Bad” could be the title of a book on Brazil during the international financial crisis. Unemployment is up, but actually not so bad. Industrial production is down, but actually not so bad. Etc., etc. The not-so-badness, by the way, is bringing lots of foreign investment into the Brazilian stock market and strengthening the real against the dollar. That has spooked exporters and caused Central Bank President Henrique Mireilles to proclaim this week, “The international market runs the risk of being a little too euphoric about Brazil.”  In other words, it’s actually not so good, either.

http://www.globalpost.com/notebook/brazil/090609/brazil-enters-recession-note