On trial, beginning today, is Kosovo’s independence. Over the next 11 days, in the courtroom in The Hague, a panel of 15 judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will hear arguments on the legitimacy of Kosovo’s independence. Serbia, backed by Russia and much of the developing world, will take on Kosovo and its powerful Western allies in a forum often called the World Court.

The ICJ’s ruling is non-binding. But Serbia hopes that a favorable decision will lend moral credibility to their fight against the recognition of Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia with United States backing on Feb. 17, 2008.

So far, 63 countries have recognized Kosovo’s independence, including most of the major Western powers. But many developing countries, and a few European states, fear that recognizing an independent Kosovo could set a dangerous precedent and give hope to other separatist movements. Serbia has also received staunch support from other Orthodox Christian nations like Russia, which blocked a U.N. Security Council decision supporting Kosovo’s independence, and EU members Greece and Cyprus.

The core of Serbia’s argument is that the Kosovo’s declaration of independence violates one of the central tenants of international law, which is that national borders cannot be changed without the consent of the state in question. And Serbia most definitely does not consent to losing Kosovo, which it considers its spiritual and cultural heartland, although Serbs today make up less than 10 percent of the population there.

Kosovo, and its Western backers, will likely argue that Serbia forfeited its claim to sovereignty over the region with its political oppression of ethnic Albanians and its brutal military campaign against Kosovo Albanian separatists. They are also expected to argue that Kosovo was never part of Serbia.

Western backers of the Kosovo’s independence, including the United States, have always argued that Kosovo is a special case that does not set any wider precedent. The region was under U.N. governorship from mid-1999, when the end of the NATO bombing led to the withdrawal of Serbian troops from Kosovo, until its declaration of independence last year.

But across the Balkans, and perhaps elsewhere in the world, Kosovo is being watched closely by other peoples with separatist aspirations. From the ethnic Albanians of Macedonia to the Serbs of Bosnia and the Turks of Cyprus, Kosovo’s declaration of independence has given hope to the dreams of minority groups in the region who dream of having their own, internationally recognized state.

I saw this firsthand on recent trip to Banja Luka, the Bosnian Serb capital. More than one person I met there told me that if Kosovo got independence from Serbia, they should get theirs from Bosnia. The entity’s parliament even threatened to hold a referendum on independence if Kosovo was recognized. And many of the analysts I spoke to in Bosnia said they believed that the situation in Kosovo had convinced Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik that the Republika Srpska, Bosnia’s Serb-majority entity, could peacefully win independence.

Thirty states, plus Kosovo, have asked to present their cases before the ICJ over the next 11 days. A decision is not expected for several months after that, but whatever the court rules, it is unlikely to do much to change the situation in Kosovo. The court's ruling is only an advisory opinion and is not binding on any party. The last such ruling it made was in 2004, when it declared the security wall in Israel violated international law. Israel rejected the ruling.

Besides, Kosovo has had de facto independence since 1999. The crucial decision about its future was made not in early 2008, but back at the end of the war when the international community chose to place Kosovo under international administration rather than reincorporated back into Serbia.

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