Tracking the swine flu epidemic

GENEVA — Until now, the World Health Organization, headquartered here in Geneva, has focused most of its attention on the threat of a potential avian flu epidemic spread by migrating birds, but the swine flu epidemic in Mexico has now definitely caught everyone’s attention.


The situation is considered serious enough to have forced Margaret Chan, the Director General of the World Health Organization, to cut short a trip to the U.S. and return to Geneva. Chan called an emergency meeting of a special board of experts on epidemics to analyze the situation. It was the first time the board has met since it was formed two years ago. The major contribution so far has been to launch a world wide alert to look for where the disease may pop up next.

"We do not yet have a complete picture of the epidemiology or the risk, including possible spread beyond the currently affected areas," said Chan (click here for an audio briefing by Chan)

Just how dangerous a flu epidemic can be was proved by the 1918 flu pandemic, which spread to nearly every part of the globe, infected half the world’s population and killed more people than World War I. That epidemic reached the arctic circle and some of the most remote islands in the South Pacific.

The Mexican flu is a new variation of a virus whose technical name is A/H1N1. The 1918 epidemic was also classified as H1N1, but the symptoms this time around appear milder. One cause for concern, however, is the fact that the flu is attacking healthy young adults rather than children and older people, who are normally the first to be affected by flu. The 1918 epidemic also attacked mostly healthy young adults.

No one has died from the flu in the U.S., so far, and the deaths in Mexico may be partly the result of people not identifying the seriousness of the illness in time to seek treatment. Mexican health authorities say they have sufficient quantities of antiviral medicine which is effective against this type of flu. It is safe to say that most people in Mexico are now aware of the danger and are likely to seek medical help if they detect the flu’s telltale signs.

The epidemic in Mexico began in mid-March, but only began to attract international notice after it appeared in the U.S. At least seven cases have been reported in southern California, two in Guadeloupe County, Texas, two in Kansas, and five in St. Francis’ preparatory school in New York City’s bureau of Queens.

The fact that everyone is now on the alert is likely to lead to a lot more reports of swine flu being reported. The trick is for epidemiologists to determine whether the cases are related or not. That involves a certain amount of detective work in tracking down the cause of infection for each case. At least 18 cases of the Mexican flu were identified by a laboratory in Canada as A/H1N1 swine flue, and 12 of these were genetically identical to the cases in California.

While the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, the Ministry of Health in Mexico and the Pan American Health Organization are monitoring the current situation in Mexico, Latin America and the U.S., the World Health Organization is taking responsibility for monitoring signs of potential outbreaks in the rest of the world.

Health officials in New York are still trying to determine if there is a connection between the outbreak in Queens and the one in Mexico, but the cases, are a reminder that in an age of global air travel diseases can spread quickly and pop up in the most unexpected places.

In Kansas, a couple living in the central part of the state contracted the disease after the husband returned from a conference in Mexico and passed the flu on to his wife.

The World Health Organization emphasizes that while the situation warrants being on the alert it is too early to know how far it will spread. In the meantime, it makes sense to take normal precautions. That includes washing one’s hands regularly, and checking with a doctor if flu symptoms appear. These include a fever, aching joints, sore throat, coughing and respiratory congestion.
 

http://www.globalpost.com/notebook/ngos/090426/tracking-the-swine-flu-epidemic