In Georgia, "Misha" is hanging on

TBILISI — Georgian opposition leaders have given President Mikheil Saakashvili 24 hours to offer his resignation. Something tells me that they won’t get what they’re demanding — at least, not in the time frame they’ve laid down.

The take-away from the country’s long-awaited April 9 anti-government demonstration is this: Saakashvili is deeply unpopular among a large portion of the population. But how unpopular? And how far are they willing to take this?

(Most people, friends and foes alike, refer to him simply as “Misha,” short for Mikheil. Georgia has a population of only five million. Politics here tend to the intimacy of an extended family — and the brutality as well.)

The protest did not produce the 150,000 protesters that opposition leaders promised. Still, the 30-40,000 who did turn out were highly motivated, and seemed to originate from a wide cross-section of society. Spirits were high as the demonstrators marched down Rustaveli boulevard, Tbilisi’s majestic main thoroughfare. Some carried placards bearing a photo one of Saakashvili’s best-forgotten moments from last year’s war over South Ossetia — when he leapt under bodyguards, face twisted in fear, as a Russian bomber swooped overhead.

The rap sheet against Misha is long, and even those who support him (or at least think that he should remain in office) acknowledge that he has committed major blunders. Georgia is not as free as it could be. Saakashvili’s behavior is erratic, impulsive and sometimes outright bizarre. The war last year was a disaster, pitting an unprepared Georgian army against a Russian military machine that is many times stronger even in its present weakened condition. The economy is suffering, despite the billions that the West has poured into the country.

Still is the situation that Saakashvili is merely disliked, or that the opposition is actually popular? There is a difference. And the reality right now seems to lean more towards the first option than the second. Georgia’s opposition — a motley collection if there ever was one — is indeed at the moment united. But just barely. And even if they remain together for long enough to push the president out of office, most likely this unity will not last for many moments after the door slams.

“Many of you don’t like those who are standing together with us today, and I don’t like many of them, but we gathered to achieve a common goal, and our goal is the resignation of Saakashvili and the saving of Georgia,” said Salome Zurabishvili, former foreign minister under Saakashvili and now leader of her own opposition political party, Georgia’s Way.

Hardly words to inspire confidence.

Georgia is a country that is as unpredictable as it is beautiful. At the moment it may seem Misha is not going anywhere — but stranger things have happened. And in Georgia these kinds of events take on a life and momentum of their own, the longer they go on. Hardly anyone believed that Saakashvili and his allies Zurab Zhvania and Nino Burjanadze would drive Eduard Shevardnadze from office, when they began protests that culminated in the 2003 Rose Revolution.

Some leaders of today’s demonstration have promised to camp out in front of parliament until Misha steps down. The question is: what if they ultimately succeed?

Some more photos of the protest:

http://www.globalpost.com/notebook/russia-and-its-neighbors/090409/georgia-misha-hanging