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Letter from London: The challenged chancellor

LONDON — The British establishment loves its traditions.  Once a year, the Chancellor of the Exchequer puts on his tuxedo and goes for dinner and to give a speech at the Mansion House, official residence of the City of London's Mayor. He grabbed headlines with a UK stimulus. But he still hasn’t recovered from favoring fat cats over grannies.

The OECD claimed today that Britain is back in recession. The Paris-based NGO's figures run at slight variance to those of British-based economic statistics compilers … but not by much. Even if the OECD's figures are slightly off, nearly 18 months of zero growth feels to British consumers and businessmen like a double-dip recession.

The question is: at what point does the Conservative-led coalition own this economy?

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Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer heads for the House of Commons to deliver his budget speech (tucked away in the little red box.) (CARL COURT/AFP/Getty Images)

Budgets are inherently dull. Outside the Beltway do many Americans pay attention when the President sends his annual budget request to Congress?

But here in Britain, no mater how dull the details,  there are weeks of speculation about what the annual budget will contain in terms of taxes and measures to encourage this or that part of the economy. On the day itself, the 24 hour news stations go wall to wall with the story, statistics fly like a seminar in business school.

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British austerity cuts: rhetoric and reality

An independent report notes that most of the government's cuts have yet to come into effect.
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Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, the global leader in voluntary austerity cuts. A new report shows that for all his rhetoric only a tiny number of cuts have actually been put in place - but still enough to drag Britain into recession. (JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP/Getty Images)

Unemployment is up, the economy contracted in the last quarter, so austerity cuts are biting, right?

That has been the tone of not only my reporting in the last year but all reporting about the British economy. It has been the framework for political criticism by the opposition Labour party.  Its mantra has been "too far, too fast."

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British economy: A radical proposal

Throw money from helicopters on to Britain's shoppers? Maybe it's a good idea.

Simon Jenkins is a columnist for The Guardian but he is hardly a left-winger. I place him on the iconoclastic right of the political spectrum. Dogma is not for him and it makes his opinions all the more entertaining, infuriating and interesting for that.

Anyway, this piece in today's Guardian posits an interesting way for Britain's economy to start growing again.

Jenkins advocates dropping new bank notes out of helicopters over Britain's shopping streets. People who find the notes are obliged to spend them immediately. The notes themselves will disintegrate in 6 months.

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Merkel speaks

German Chancellor on EU's future and the prospects for Greece
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel before today's weekly cabinet meeting in Berlin (Sean Gallup/AFP/Getty Images)

Angela Merkel has become the most important politician in Europe.  She rarely speaks candidly to the press so these comments given to a consortium of liberal newspapers including The Guardian are worth paying attention to:

Within the wider euro zone debt crisis she considers Greece, "a special case where, despite all the efforts that have been made, neither the Greeks themselves nor the international community have yet managed to stabilize the situation." 

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Austerity bites: British economy contracts

The British economy contracted 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2011
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Britain's austerity architect, Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, says there will be no change to his economic plans despite British economy experiencing negative growth in the last three months of 2011 (LEON NEAL/AFP/Getty Images)

The Office of National Statistics' figures on the British economy were not hugely surprising. Economists had been expecting a contraction of some kind.

The Financial Times surveyed a group recently and they thought the economy would shrink by 0.1 percent.

The prospects for another contraction this quarter are high. The FT report notes construction and manufacturing activity are down. With sizeable lay-offs coming in the public and private sector, as I blogged recently, the prospect of a double-dip recession is increasing in probability.

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British Austerity - the alternative to dealing with debt reduction - isn't working either

Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, admits to Parliament his deficit reduction plan has run off the rails.
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Chancellor of the Exchequer contemplates the numbers on his way to Parliament today (BEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images)
Britain's austerity plan hits the buffers. Borrowing is going up and so is unemployment. Recession is a real possibility, the government admits
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