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"Crisis of Capitalism?" Europe: daily economic round-up

Cameron speaks, Stock markets up, bonds sell

The "crisis of capitalism" is a phrase more associated with Marxists than Conservative politicians like British Prime Minister David Cameron, but with the public still dismayed by what it sees as the excesses of the financial services industry - particularly bankers' pay and bonuses - and with bonus season about to get underway, Cameron needed to address the issue.

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Tobin Tax for Europe, Merkel climbs aboard

Controversial Tobin Tax or Financial Transaction Tax has a new adherent according to a leading German newspaper
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Tobin Tax, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported to want it - and she usually gets what she wants. (ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/Getty Images)

The Tobin Tax, or Financial Transaction Tax, is controversial within the EU - Britain says it won't sign up for an EU wide levy - and within German Chancellor Angela Merkel's right-wing coalition government where the minority partners, the FDP, are against the idea.

But according to an article in today's Suddeutsche Zeitung, Merkel is now throwing her weight behind a Tobin Tax.

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Pimco is the world's largest bondholder and when its CEO Mohamed El-Erian speaks people tend to listen. Today the Greek newspaper eKathimerini has an interview with El-Erian in which he says the famous 50 percent haircut for Greece's bond holders is not enough.

"According to our analysis, 50 percent is not enough for Greece to restore credibly the conditions for medium-term debt sustainability and economic growth. A 50 percent haircut would still leave open way too many questions about Greece’s economic and financial outlook," the CEO told the paper.

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Italian prime minister calls for German help

Mario Monti urges German government to do more to help lower Italy's borrowing costs
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Mario Monti in Rome yesterday. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

The new Italian Prime Minister told the Financial Times that it was in Germany's "own enlightened self-interest" to help Italy and the other heavily indebted countries of the euro zone periphery to lower their borrowing costs.

Monti, a technocrat appointed to replace Silvio Berlusconi, praised Germany's "culture of stability" as "a precious German product [that] has been marvelously exported.”

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European economic news round-up

Quiet day in the financial markets but heating up elsewhere
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The Occupy movement has begun setting up Camp Igloo in Davos in advance of next week's annual World Economic Forum meeting. (Sean Gallup/AFP/Getty Images)

Update: S&P has just announced it is making one more downgrade, to a critical issuer of European debt: the European Financial Stability Fund has lost its AAA rating. In parallel with France, it has gone from AAA to AA+.

Last Friday, Standard & Poor's downgraded several euro-zone countries credit ratings, most notably France, which went from AAA to AA+. The headline the next day Britain's Guardian newspaper was  "Friday the 13th" with its attendant implications of misfortune.

Today, there was no sign of Jason Voorhees ripping up Europe.  The financial markets shrugged everything off. The CAC 40 in Paris finished up 0.9 percent while the DAX 30 in Frankfurt closed up 1.25 percent. The FTSE in London was up 0.4 percent. Not exciting but not negative.

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Euro zone debt crisis: focus returns to Greece

Negotiators head to Athens to try and nail down agreement on bail-out
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The rioting has calmed down in Athens but negotiations on the Greek bail-out aren't going so well. This week is crunch time and depnding on what's decided the streets may catch fire again. (LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images)

You may have thought the Greek crisis was pretty much over. After all the headlines from last November were: Greek bondholders agree to take a haircut and the country's Prime Minister George Papandreou resigns to be replaced by a technocrat named Lucas Papademos, who is more congenial to the needs of the EU's leadership in Brussels, and more important, to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

But as focus shifted to Italy and now to France, the Greek situation has remained bogged down in details. This week Greece's creditors in banks and hedge funds (not necessarily interested in the same outcome) plus representatives of the "Troika" (EU, IMF and European Central Bank) descend on Athens for an intensive round of negotiations with the Greek government.

Larry Elliott at The Guardian has the best line of the day on the event. "It is international finance's version of Sartre's Huis Clos, a vision of hell where three people who loathe each other are stuck in a room for eternity."

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Europe: daily economic round-up

Downgrades coming?
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Going, going, gone. Rumor has it France is about to lose its AAA rating form Standard & Poor's. What will that mean for the euro zone debt crisis? (THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images)

UPDATE; THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT STANDARD & POOR'S HAS DOWNGRADED THE COUNTRY'S CREDIT RATING ONE NOTCH FROM AAA TO AA+. 

"It's not good news, but it's not a catastrophe," said French Finance Minister Francois Baroin. "It's not ratings agencies that decide French policy."

 

The day - and the week - ends with rumors swirling that Standard & Poor's is preparing to issue credit downgrades for a number of euro zone countries including France. How strong are the rumors? If S & P doesn't drop France a notch or two from AAA every newspaper and most of the financial community in Europe is going to feel real embarrassed.

The rumor has sent stock markets down. The euro has lost more than a cent against the dollar.

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Euro zone crisis: has a corner been turned?

The atmosphere is calmer these days - politically and in the bond markets. Why?
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Was Silvio Berlusconi's departure the turning point for the euro zone debt crisis? (ANNE-CHRISTINE POUJOULAT/AFP/Getty Images)

There is probably no riskier form of behavior for a blogging journalist than to claim that a corner has been turned in solving the euro zone's debt crisis but two weeks into the New Year it feels like something has changed - and changed for the better.

It may be a moment akin to something in an episode of ER where the patient is in the emergency room and the crash carts have been deployed and vital signs have stabilized and the family - you and me and everybody in the world who understands that a euro crash will mean Great Depression MkII - are taking a deep breath, sipping tepid coffee, and feeling tentatively hopeful that the patient will make it.

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Europe: daily econ news round-up

Stocks down, bonds sell, meetings held, rumors circulating
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Heckuva job, Monti, or words to that effect, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel praises Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti today for the reforms he has already brought to the Italian economy. (Sean Gallup/AFP/Getty Images)

Rumors first: Yesterday, France was assured by Fitch ratings service it would keep its AAA rating for the rest of the year. Today French finance minister Francois Baroin was forced to knock down rumors that one of the other agencies has notified him that they intend to downgrade France anyway.

"False" was the word Baroin used to describe the rumors.

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European economic news: today's round-up

Meetings, bank runs and some surprising good news for France
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AAA ratings of sovereign debt. France will keep hers, says rating agency Fitch (PHILIPPE HUGUEN/YouTube)

Let's start with the good news: Ratings agency Fitch announced France would keep its AAA rating for the rest of the year. A Fitch spokesperson in Paris said, "Fitch maintains its position from December. In the absence of important shocks that could be linked to a strong worsening of the situation in the eurozone, Fitch does not foresee modifying its negative outlook (on the ratings) before 2013."

Now, it's Europe, let's get to the bad news. In London, Fitch's managing director, David Riley, said Italy was the country that was most at risk of a downgrade. "The future of the euro will be decided at the gates of Rome," Riley told reporters.

The country's A+ rating could be lowered as soon as the end of January.

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